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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 31, 2025

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In a nuclear exchange, MAD deterrence depends on both sides being able and wiling to destroy the other if they detect a first strike.

no, retaliatory strike may also use weapons that survived initial strike (or second strike)

MAD is not limited to launch on warning

for example all kinds of real or theoretical systems are possible. See Perimeter AKA Dead Hand, fail-deadly system that would release ability to launch missiles to low-ranking personnel in a case of decapitation strike*

*sometimes described as being able to launch nuclear weapons completely autonomously, without any human oversight at all, but that is fairly dubious. And even more exotic systems are possible.

Though in practice, boomer launching missiles hours or months after first strike is perfectly sufficient.

In the case of NATO vs Russia, MAD is not even! If Russia decides to first strike NATO, it's possible they could wipe out Europe before it has time to respond, in perhaps 10 minutes. But the US part of NATO is another story, and could take up to 30 minutes to wipe out. That's considerably more time for the US to order and launch a counterstrike that wipes out Russia.

this is mostly irrelevant due to second strike capabilities, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_strike

For start USA, UK and France have boomers. One of main roles of ballistic missile submarine is to be not destroyed in first strike and to retaliate. see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile_submarine

Which is why Russia putting nukes on hypersonic missiles is not changing much here.

What further alarms Russia is that this 10 minute window drops considerably if Ukraine is added to NATO. A decapitation strike against major cities in Russia launched from Ukraine could take as little as 5 minutes.

Also irrelevant as you can launch nuclear strike from ballistic missile submarines (they are also useful for attack!) or Finland. Or planes. Adding ability to launch nuclear strike from Ukrainian soil adds little to nothing here.

If you take Russia at face value

why I would do so? this is mistake in general in politics, but in case of Russia this is especially stupid

Am I misreading anything with the MAD situation? I understand there exist planes and subs that can deliver nuclear warheads but I don't see Russia's force projection capabilities being able to fulfill the retaliatory threat.

Maybe for Russia these are not helping. But potential attackers have them so ability to launch nukes from Ukrainian soil does not meaningfully increases risk. And for Russia their war eaten enormous resources, including ones that would fund nuclear deterrent. What they did is in fact indicator that they are not scared by NATO or China invading Russia.

actively tracks them and can pre-emptively obliterate them the moment things get hot.

even assuming this: what about road mobile launchers and hardened siloses?

probably also avoiding scaring the shit out of failing and desperate nuclear armed powers is key.

being infinitely scared by Russian nuclear arsenal is (in addition to Libya vs North Korea) something that will greatly encourage nuclear proliferation. South Korea is serious enough to get official USA reaction ( https://www.reuters.com/world/us-designated-south-korea-sensitive-country-amid-talk-nuclear-weapons-2025-03-15/ ) but there is potential for more.

being infinitely scared by Russian nuclear arsenal is (in addition to Libya vs North Korea) something that will greatly encourage nuclear proliferation.

You can probably also add Poland to that list in the future