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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 31, 2025

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I'd like to point out that Yudkowsky himself never said (to my knowledge, and I've read practically everything he's written) that utilitarianism is the correct moral system. He's on record saying multiple times that rationality is a means to an end and not an end in itself.

You can very much be a "Yudkowskian Rationalist" while holding none of his values, beyond valuing rationality because of the utility it provides in a wide spectrum of situations. Probably throw in thinking about meta-rationality,

If you don't believe me, then the first of the Sequences is What Do We Mean By "Rationality"?:

I mean two things:

  1. Epistemic rationality: systematically improving the accuracy of your beliefs.
  1. Instrumental rationality: systematically achieving your values.

The first concept is simple enough. When you open your eyes and look at the room around you, you’ll locate your laptop in relation to the table, and you’ll locate a bookcase in relation to the wall. If something goes wrong with your eyes, or your brain, then your mental model might say there’s a bookcase where no bookcase exists, and when you go over to get a book, you’ll be disappointed.

This is what it’s like to have a false belief, a map of the world that doesn’t correspond to the territory. Epistemic rationality is about building accurate maps instead. This correspondence between belief and reality is commonly called “truth,” and I’m happy to call it that.1

Instrumental rationality, on the other hand, is about steering reality—sending the future where you want it to go. It’s the art of choosing actions that lead to outcomes ranked higher in your preferences. I sometimes call this “winning.”

So rationality is about forming true beliefs and making decisions that help you win.

Emphasis added. Rationality is systematized winning, or getting what you personally want (as people can strongly disagree on what counts as victory).

I'm a Yudkowskian Rationalist, but I'm not a utilitarian. I'm a consequentialist with a complex value system that isn't trivially compressed. You could be a malevolent AGI trying to turn everyone into paperclips and be recognized by him, as long as you weren't doing it in a clearly suboptimal way.

I'm a consequentialist with a complex value system that isn't trivially compressed.

Wait, how is this incompatible with utilitarianism? A large chunk of the Sequences was an attempt to convince people that, despite Von Neumann-Morganstern being a theorem about rational values being expressible as a utility function, human values still aren't easily compressed into a trivial utility function. It was a key lemma in service of the proposition "if you think you have a simple function representing human utility and you're going to activate ASI with it then You're Gonna Have A Bad Time".

As an aside, this is where I most differ from Yudkowsky on the current race to AGI: he seems to think we're now extra-doomed because we don't even fully understand the AIs we're creating; I think we're now fractionally-doomed for the same reason. The contrapositive of "a utility function simple enough to understand is unsafe" is "a safe utility function is something we won't fully understand". I don't know if stochastic descent + fine-tuning for consistency will actually derive a tolerably human value system starting from human text/audio/video corpuses, but it's at least possible.

When most people use the term "utilitarianism", they're talking about the Benthamian or Springer notion. This is a mistake I've made myself, having argued with some poor guy on the old Motte where I claimed that since I have a utility function, I'm therefore utilitarian. I've learned from that error.

My understanding is that most humans aren't VNM rational! They violate one or more of the different requirements, in the sense that their preferences can be contradictory. An example is the Allais Paradox. I don't know if any human is actually VNM rational, but I don't think that's necessarily impossible for someone who is good at meta-cognition and math.

Note that I'm not disagreeing with Yudkowsky here, I was aiming to demonstrate that @Primaprimaprima 's (implicit, by my understanding) claim that not being a utilitarian disqualified him from being a "Yudkowskian Rationalist".

As an aside, this is where I most differ from Yudkowsky on the current race to AGI: he seems to think we're now extra-doomed because we don't even fully understand the AIs we're creating; I think we're now fractionally-doomed for the same reason. The contrapositive of "a utility function simple enough to understand is unsafe" is "a safe utility function is something we won't fully understand". I don't know if stochastic descent + fine-tuning for consistency will actually derive a tolerably human value system starting from human text/audio/video corpuses, but it's at least possible.

I disagree with Yud on this myself. My p(doom) has gone down from a max of 70% to a far less concerning 20% these days. Our alignment techniques, while imperfect, produce LLMs which are remarkably in-sync with the goals and desires of their creators (and to a lesser extent, their users). Anthropic is doing excellent mechanical interpretability work, such as recent studies into how Claude actually thinks (it's not just predicting the next token, it backtracks and "thinks ahead). They're not entirely black boxes, as was feared to be the case before modern LLMs arrived.

It's also remarkable that RLHF works, and I'm confident that Yudkowsky was surprised by this, even if his priors didn't update that much (I recall a Twitter post along these lines). I was surprised, I remember thinking, holy shit, this works??

Note that just because a model is aligned with its creators/users, that doesn't mean that it's aligned with me. Consider the possibility that a Chinese AGI follows orders exactly understanding the CCP's intent, but said orders are to permanently disempower all non-Chinese and wrest control of the light cone (casualties are acceptable).