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Notes -
Namor specifically said that he hadn't been passive, he had been preparing his people for war for centuries. The Vibranium detector - or, more specifically, T'Challa's decision to reveal it - revealed to Namor that their isolation was ending so it was now time to strike.
Also: Namor is supposed to be an asshole. He's been seen as a living god by his people for centuries and his formative experiences with humans were highly negative. He has less incentive to change than most "elders".
That's cause M'Baku was right: if you pay the danegeld you don't get rid of the Dane. Namor was never going to leave after getting what he wanted, he would just demand more. He explicitly tells Shuri that he knows killing the scientist won't permanently solve his problem.
Namor was testing the waters: if he can convince Wakanda to help him kill the scientist (essentially making them complicit in his act of war), he knows he can then pressure them for more long-range stuff. And, of course, if they get caught they're already at war with the US. Which is what happened.
As for why his opinion seemed to change: the obvious answer is that he had Shuri in his custody which a) gave him more leverage and b) a chance to convince her directly.
Which they lost. When they absolutely shouldn't have. Putting aside the outside-context tech Thanos brought (the massive drills), I honestly think the US Army would have done a better job because they have things like...artillery and rapid fire weapons. But the Wakandans were overwhelmed by sheer numbers.
If anything "Wakanda is technologically strong but has a very outdated military doctrine and very small numbers of people" is the best rationalization of the disconnect between what we're told and what they see.
Which would tie in nicely with this film...If they actually gave the Talokans the numbers Namor bragged about. I know they couldn't be there for the final battle but maybe an establishing shot would have helped here.
Ah, I must have missed that. Maybe it just didn't really materialize in my head because they didn't really show it; like you said, we only hear Namor brag about his numbers, there's never more than maybe 50 Talokans on screen at any given point in time except in Taloka itself, but that seemed like a peaceful and pleasant city so didn't really strike me as "preparing for centuries for war".
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