Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
I am going to pre-register my position of "no major Happening occurs." It may well just be for the purposes of carrying out another flashy, expensive bombing run on the Houthis. Why strike Iran now and not before?
The Biden administration was planning a strike against Iran a few months before the election but cancelled it when a leaker blew the whistle on it. Despite the hysterical articles about Iran being six months away from a bomb every two weeks since 1986, they genuinely are getting close to one. Technically they are already past it. They have a bomb design, and enough fissile material for two or three, they just haven’t bothered to build one yet for strategic reasons. Israel is pretty skilled at gumming up the works, but that only works to a point. Iranian Uranium enrichment is about to take off, they have an entire line of centrifuges that are just about to start up.
It’s Iran’s only major strategic card left now that Hezbollah has been wrecked.
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