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Notes -
I doubt banking would go away overnight even if AI can do the “pls fix”ing when models suck and powerpoint logos are a few pixels misaligned.
At the higher levels of seniority, banking is fundamentally a sales/relationship business. Perhaps midlevels and juniors just transition over to a more private wealth management type workflow, less modeling/slide-jannying but more outreach/cold-calling. Maybe, *clutches pearls*, 100-hour work-weeks could even be rendered obsolete. Then again, it’s easier to imagine the end of the world than an end to sweaty hours for investment banking analysts.
It’s not limited to banking: for better or worse, people prefer dealing with other human beings, to have someone they can
blame if/when things go wrongtrust.And maybe they’re right rather than oblivious (or both right and oblivious), that nothing ever happens and it’ll turn out to be a nothing burger.
Even if they’re wrong and white collar jobs get mopped away, it’d be a good excuse for me to retire early—it’d be a relief in a way. If I get bored, who knows, I might even Learn a Trade or Trades to at least be able to take care of some or most of my own stuff, but perhaps also so I have tangible, marketable skills (although the value of which would be diminished by other former white collar workers doing the same).
If AI causes civilizational collapse or goes all skynetty, I guess I’ll just die then. At least in death I’ll no longer have to be faux-friendly to HR or be subjected to coworker noise pollution, unless Hell really exists.
If you have the money to retire early, why do you need an excuse to do it?
I think the worry for many people is that UBI or whatever given to the hundreds of millions of unemployed people around the world might only be enough for eking out a bare bones living and having no enjoyment of life ever again because the rich and the owners of the AIs hoard all the wealth.
I agree with most of this, but there's a difference between FIRE, lean FIRE and fat FIRE. For most people who can retire early and survive indefinitely, it probably makes sense on the margin to work a bit longer and save more.
(If the person reading this is 75 and has twenty million in the bank, just quit your job already)
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