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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 10, 2025

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If they actually did this it would be the start of a nuclear war which ends global civilisation. Why exactly would Russia just blow up a carrier group unprovoked? If I said that body armor doesn't protect against powerful firearms "Well if that was true why wouldn't you just go shoot an antimateriel rifle at the local SWAT team?" would not be a very compelling argument.

At least in this example you could shoot the antimaterial rifle at a bulletproof vest. I actually think this is a good analogy, the antimaterial rifle definitely wins the match-up, but claiming that a bulletproof vest provides zero protection is overstating it.

In this situation it is actually Vladimir Putin you're accusing of overstating the capabilities of hypersonic missiles. Whatever else you can say about the man, I believe he's quite knowledgeable about the capabilities of Russian weapon systems.

I'm quite confident that if I was chatting with Vladimir Putin in person he would agree with me that it is possible to intercept his hypersonic missiles in the boost phase (this is part of why Russia does not like our missile defense systems in Eastern Europe, I believe). He would then point out that as a practical matter that is very difficult to do. I think he would agree with me that while he is quite knowledgeable about Russian weapons systems, his knowledge on US weapons systems is necessarily somewhat limited (though perhaps still better than mine).

I don't see how the combination of hypersonics and throwing large numbers of cheap crap along as well can't defeat any modern missile defence system. Both of these are known weakpoints, and I don't quite understand how it'd be possible to overcome the two strategies in combination.

Yeah, if you look at my comment history you'll see me saying similar things. I think you're overindexing on the big picture (offensive weapons are hard to defeat with missile defense) and overlooking my extremely narrow technical argument.

Now, there is a solution to the large numbers of cheap crap: old-fashioned AAA, laser-guided 5-inch rockets, and lasers. All of these are very cheap. But the West doesn't field AAA in numbers, is just now getting the laser-guided rockets up and running, and is still fooling around with laser systems. (Also, both of the laser-involved systems don't work very well if, for instance, it's foggy outside, which sucks!)

The Russians, with their layered approach to integrated air defense, are arguably ahead of the West in defeating the "mixed" approach you're talking about here, but they still struggle against low-observable cruise missiles. (They really need more A-50 AWACs.)

The US has denied it but the Houthis claimed that they managed to damage an aircraft carrier recently. The houthis seem substantially more trustworthy than US officials to me, but I think we'll have to wait and see for more information on this one. The last time the houthis claimed to have hit an aircraft carrier and the US denied it, the carrier then left the region. For the record I doubt this was an actual direct strike - I think the damage in this instance would be caused by a delayed interception that lead to some minor damage rather than a direct hit.

I'm like 50/50 on whether or not it would have leaked. I will believe it when there is good proof of it.

As for ISR assets I wasn't aware that Yemen had a space program.

The Houthis in fact reportedly used Russian satellite data in their attacks. They also reportedly got targeting data from Iran, IIRC.

It's also worth noting as a practical matter that there's a big difference (if you're a ship) between being deployed to an area like the Red Sea versus an area like "the middle of the Pacific" with considerably more room to maneuver.

So basically despite having satellite ISR data and an ideal situation in which to engage a carrier (I believe the entire battle group went into the Red Sea, correct me if I am wrong) they failed to sink a carrier or its escorts. In fact the most damage done to the CBG (so far) was due to friendly fire.

I don't think there's any real way to prevent a modern nation from shooting down satellites just yet, especially surveillance satellites directly above their heads.

There are a couple of ways to deal with this problem. One of them is by fielding lots of little cubesats so that you're putting more assets in orbit faster than your enemy can shoot them down. This might not work for all applications but it can for some, like communications. (For instance I doubt the US could destroy the Starlink constellation with its ASAT stockpile, it would need to use other methods). Another alternative is to use maneuvering space assets like the X-37 or high-altitude high-speed ISR assets like the totally-not-already-built-and-tested SR-72 and the very real Chinese WZ-8, which will be more difficult to shoot down.

I can't see any more likely motivation for the US to have left the area without achieving their goals. What other reason would they have to run away like that?

Off the top of my head, a very good explanation for US behavior is that they ran low on ammo.