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Notes -
Because FPTP in the electoral college magnifies small wins, particularly in the situation we are in where most of the key swing states are in the Rustbelt, so they tend to swing in the same direction. But the actual margin of victory in terms of votes was small - 1.5% in the popular vote and 1.7% in the tipping-point state.
The only recent election where the popular vote was closer was Bush v Gore. The tipping point state in the electoral college was closer in 2016 (0.8%) and 2020 (0.7%) but 1.5% is close by historical standards.
Given that most polls claim a 3% margin of error, the polls predicting a toss-up were correct.
The presidential election isn't decided by national popular vote so going back and forth between it and intrastate popular vote which selects electors which elect the president muddies the waters. A pollster could be exactly correct at the national level popular vote and still miss badly on picking who was going to win the election.
Do you think pollsters should be judged on their actual prediction or do you think as long as they were in their 6+ point spread (depending on the poll) they were "correct" ?
I don't find a polling company which regularly gets their predictions wrong directionally (i.e., who is going to win), but within a 6 point spread to be valuable; pollsters do make predictions on winners and pick their anchor points of their 6 pt spread and should be compared and judged on them. It's not enough to merely be in their claimed error spread.
The response to a "pollster" who is predicting the outcome of a race to just answer "it's a coin-toss" is "give me my money back."
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