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Notes -
I'm more optimistic about country or bloc-level rearming (i.e. something like the Nordics + Baltics + Poland) then I am about it happening at the EU level. I'm no expert but I'd imagine the political incentives are too diverse between the member states for there to be any sort of unified approach. I'd be surprised if Spain or Italy want to make the same sacrifices as Estonia or Finland when they're at approximately zero risk of invasion. It's also unclear whether countries that are prepared to spend the necessary resources want to contribute them to what might start looking more like Macron's Neo-French empire than a military union equally committed to everyone's interests. We'll have to see.
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