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Notes -
Would you care to make a prediction as to when (or if!) LLMs will be able to reliably clear games on the level of Pokemon (i.e., 2D & turn-based)? If a new model could do it, would you believe that represents an improvement that isn't just "marginal"? Assume it has to generalize beyond specific games, so it should be able to clear early Final Fantasy titles (and similar) too, to cover the case where "Pokemon ability" becomes a benchmark and gets Goodharted.
Personally I don't think it's necessarily impossible for current models with the proper tooling and prompting but it might be prohibitively difficult; the problem is a little underspecified, for it to be "fair" I'd want to limit the LLMs to screenshot input and tools/extensions it writes itself (for navigation, parsing data, long-term planning, memory, etc). I don't think 2 years is too optimistic though.
(I asked 3.7 Sonnet, which suggested "3-5 years", o3-mini which said "a decade or more", DeepSeek said "5-7 years", and Grok "5-10 years".)
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