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If I had complete control, I would continue the intelligence sharing, military materiel transfer to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. No security guarantees, no troops on the ground, no direct air support, intel is fine. In terms of magnitude, I would probably give more because Ukraine is currently losing, and they'll need additional help to hold the line. The goal is to bleed Russia and teach them that aggressive wars do not pay. Which makes it less likely that they will think about trying the same against the Baltics and Finland, who are actually NATO members. Which in turn makes it less likely for the US and Russia to go to war against each other down the line.
In terms of falsifiability, I guess if it's discovered that Ukrainian oligarchs are squirreling away a large portion of the aid money, that would make further aid a bad idea. Some corruption is expected since Ukraine was itself corrupt, but if I had to put a number to it, we'll need to rethink it if more than 20% is actually ending up in someone's swiss bank account.
From my perspective, I see almost an equal amount of Ukraine skeptics and Ukraine supporters on this forum.
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