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Notes -
The work of Ha-Joon Chang has convinced me that
But there doesn't seem to be an industrial policy behind the Trump tariffs - in the sense that I can't work out which industries Trump wants to promote and which he doesn't.
There is a separate problem that development-orientated industrial policy is impossible when you are at the technological frontier because the knowledge you need to think about the economy ten years out simply doesn't exist. Whereas if you are trying to go third-world to first quickly you know that you start with textiles because everyone does, do car parts before cars, don't do aerospace or semiconductors until you are ready etc.
The even thornier problem is that the supply chain for high-end semiconductors appears to be too big and complex for one country, even the US or EU, to host a full-stack semiconductor industry. Right now ARM, TSMC, ASML and Zeiss are all close-to-irreplaceable in their niches.
Probably everything, but I think an underappreciated one is cheap, mass produced knicknacks in the $1-$5 range. With injection molding, die casting, and dfm, these products aren't labor intensive to make, and can actually be made in the usa while still being in the price range where consumers don't really care. But penny pinching corporate types will still pick the cheapest, and Chinese d2c sites like shein and temu are surging.
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