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Notes -
I don’t think a nuclear conflict is necessarily likely, but a conventional engagement over Taiwan has a much much higher chance at spiraling out of control than the Ukraine War does for a few reasons.
Any invasion of Taiwan is going to start with a massive blockade of the island. The US can’t just sit back and ship over ammo and weapons systems. If the US decides to intervene it would require directly engaging the Chinese fleet in a way that ensures thousands of deaths on both sides in a very short period of time. Keep in mind one aircraft carrier going down with all hands would cause more deaths than 9/11.
The time scale here is brutally fast compared to Ukraine. Everyone knows where everyone else’s ships and bases are. This isn’t like Midway where the fleets are going to take weeks to find each other. Both sides have extremely long range weapons and could start hitting fleets and bases within minutes of a conflict starting. One side could find itself effectively losing the conflict in a matter of hours. This vastly increases the risk of panic and the use of tactical nuclear weapons to try and even things out.
Using a tactical nuclear weapon on a fleet in the middle of the ocean has effectively zero risk of civilian casualties, so there is a much better psychological excuse for the early launches than you would have for a land war.
There’s a hell of a lot more money on the table. Between the chip fabs in Taiwan and control of the South China Sea, one side is coming out of this economically ruined. Adding to the pressure, both the American and Chinese stock markets are going to immediately get heemed the minute the conflict starts, creating an intense pressure to get this over with fast.
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