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Notes -
We shouldn't self-own just because it means Putin gets what he wants.
The problem with guarantees is that Zelenskyy would be motivated to then antagonize the Russians to draw NATO troops into the fight. It's the only way he can ever win back back the lost territories.
The mineral deal was an elegant solution because it provided a sort of guarantee while giving the U.S. strategic ambiguity to cut Zelenskyy loose if he went rogue. That's why it's so concerning that Zelenskyy appeared to walk away from this deal (or have a spat with Trump, either way it's bad). Personally, I'm glad the deal didn't go through because I don't want to hear about how we stole their worthless minerals for the next 5 decades.
Going forward, we should promise Ukraine a massive transfer of weapons contingent on peace. But the US must maintain strategic ambiguity. A guarantee is untenable, both because it could draw NATO into the war, but also because Russia would never accept it.
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