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As opposed to a peace summit with Ukraine without inviting Russia to the table? Putin has a tender ego, deliberately snubbing and ostracizing him has worked just as well as beating a toddler to make it stop crying does. Having a widely publicized "discussion between two very important countries" first doesn't hurt Ukraine in any way other than wounding its pride, but saving Putin's face might actually help end the war in 2025.
This would, indeed, not be a productive way to get actual peace term conditions in place.
Mind you, I don't think it had that purpose in the first place, as opposed to inter-pro-Ukraine-coalition politics, but I fully agree to any point that not inviting Russia to a peace summit makes it a bit of a farce of a peace summit.
And should Putin claim snubbing rights- such as holding a summit without Ukraine or Europe- I would give a shrug.
Coincidentally, I more or less shrugged from the summit earlier this month as well. Propaganda, for sure, but completely consistent with my predictions last fall that the early post-Turmp period would be met with pro-forma rather than substantial negotiations.
I'd also note that this would normalize the consequence of Trump getting a similar result for doing a similar thing.
And what if not all the parties involved want the war to end in 2025?
From my perspective, it seems to me that Russia wants the war to end in 2025 because the grind of 2024 for the election year and negotiating shaping are not indefinitely sustainable (as was raised and discussed last year). Reasons why may very, but there is regullar discussions / expectations of significant push potential in late 2025 and into 2026... and with it, the ability to compellingly make demands on terms.
Trump wanted the war to end in 2025 because it frustrates him and he wants to take credit and move past it. Different reads on Trump differ, but I don't think anyone thinks he has a strategic rather than emotional reason for wanting the war to end in 2025.
However, the Europeans and Ukrainians were not the ones who want the war to end in 2025, beyond the general 'we'd love it if our enemies stop fighting' sense, and have consistently signaled hesitation / opposition to a war ending in 2025 on terms Putin finds favorable. Their general position is that better long-term terms are worth fighting longer for, and there is plenty of speculation that they believe Russia's pushing in 2024 is leaving it far more constrained in 2025 and especially in 2026 and beyond.
They have it for their own reasons- the Ukrainians caring more about long-term terms rather than short-term terrain or casualty losses, the Europeans wanting more time for European rearmament- but neither has exactly been shy about supporting more Ukrainian deaths for longer-term security vis-a-vis Russia, which they do not feel they are getting from Trump.
The wisdom / accuracy of their choice may be up for question, but if the war goes on until 2026 or 2027 or even 2028 as a result of this snub-fest, that won't be a failure of the Ukrainians to seek peace in 2025, but a failure of those who actually wanted it in 2025.
(And, for the record, I've my doubts of the credibility of any American shut-off of all forms of aid... but that's another topic and we shall see.)
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