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Notes -
I think you are correct, but as I said I think conflict is inevitable whether the sides prophesize about it or not. The extent and magnitude of conflict can be mitigated but it cannot be avoided. I don't want to project any sort of tough guy attitude, or the idea that people should engage in conflict. I also don't want to promote any sort of paranoid conflict theory. I just believe that circumstances will eventually dictate that conflict happens, even if no one actively wants it.
I am completely on board with mitigation, along with more people embracing a mistake-theorist lean over the conflict theory lean. I just have a fundamental belief that some of what occurs, even conflict, is a matter of circumstance and our nature which are simply baked into reality. It seems to me that the dominant Western policy mindset is heavily saturated with mistake-theory thinking, which ironically has created an environment that’s actually more prone to conflict. Some of these left-leaning policies and ideas (particularly the social ones) are driven by utopian assumptions that ignore structural realities. The effect that has had on our institutions and social cohesion have become pretty evident in my opinion.
It’s not the best analogy, but I always think of it: When shit was hitting the fan in 2020 people made a run for bulk items, especially toilet paper. It was absurd to watch people panic buy toilet paper of all things, but it didn’t matter how rational or calm any individual person was. Once enough people started stockpiling the shelves were empty and at that point even the most reasonable, community-minded person had to join in if they wanted to avoid being left without.
The point I’m trying to make is that some conflicts work the same way. You can personally favor cooperation, good faith, and compromise but once a critical mass of people (on either side) start treating the situation as a conflict, you’re pulled into that dynamic whether you want to be or not.
You don’t have to want conflict, or even believe in conflict theory, for conflict to find you. It’s not always a prophecy sometimes it’s just how cascading events play out when people act in self-interest under uncertainty.
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