Tuesday November 8, 2022 is Election Day in the United States of America. In addition to Congressional "midterms" at the federal level, many state governors and other more local offices are up for grabs. Given how things shook out over Election Day 2020, things could get a little crazy.
...or, perhaps, not! But here's the Megathread for if they do. Talk about your local concerns, your national predictions, your suspicions re: election fraud and interference, how you plan to vote, anything election related is welcome here. Culture War thread rules apply, with the addition of Small-Scale Questions and election-related "Bare Links" allowed in this thread only (unfortunately, there will not be a subthread repository due to current technical limitations).
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
If you wanted citations, it would have been easy to ask for them instead of vaguely gesturing at your point without making an argument.
Here's my source for covid death rate by age range: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02867-1/fulltext#seccestitle140
And here's baseline death rate by age: https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age-and-sex-in-the-us/
For base jumping, I just googled "base jumping fatality rate" and got about 0.04% per jump.
Upon re-doing my math, I did in fact make an error! At 65, the IFR for covid is about equal to your annual risk of death, 1.7-1.8%. I still think this is pretty high (it is still about 40 times higher than 1 BASE jump, which I think most people consider risky). But also, this is the kind of thing I wanted to get answers on, rather than vague statements about what most people consider "risky" without reference to data.
My post was a question, it was far from a comprehensive analysis. Which COVID prevention measures increase mortality? If you have an argument that they do, that's also exactly the kind of thing I would like to know, as it directly affects the question originally posed! (Of course, then you should incorporate all of the effects--for example, driving is dangerous too).
For example, https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/21/colorado-festivals-covid/ mentions several, including a rodeo, the state fair, and a "western celebration."
You were the one who initially described it as risky behavior. You weren’t “just asking questions.”
What constitutes risky isn’t an empirical question but an evaluation based on empirical data. I still don’t see covid as a major risk for a 55 year old, even as you try to reframe risk.
Once more, risk can’t be viewed unidirectionally. World is risk-risk. It is incumbent on the person suggesting action X is risky to explain why not X is relatively less risky.
Finally there is question of benefit. Even if we assume X is risky relatively to not X, the question becomes whether reward is greater than risk.
You referred to my original post, which has a question right at the top. The assertion of specific behavior as risky comes later--and I did provide evidence for this claim.
You already ignored my request to describe this offsetting risk once. Once again, I asked a question for a reason. Provide an argument.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link