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Notes -
The hard part is what I was alluding to, when I mentioned that during the gene-editing, you could copy and paste sections of genomes from unrelated pathogens. Nature already does this, but to a limited extent (bacteria can share DNA, viral replication often incorporates bits of the host or previous viral DNA still lurking there).
I expect that a competent actor could merge properties like:
Can spread through aerosols (influenza or rhinoviri)
Avoids detection by the immune system, or has a minimal prodrome that looks like Generic Illness (early HIV infection)
Massive lethality (HIV or a host of other diseases, not just restricted to viruses)
The design space pretty much contains anything that can code for proteins! There's no fundamental reason that a disease can't both be extremely lethal and have incubation periods long enough for it to be widespread. The only reason, as far as I can see, for why we don't have this is because nobody has been insane (and resourceful) enough to try. Holding the former constant, the resource requirement is dropping precipitously by the year. Anyone can order a gene editing kit off ebay, and the genetic code of many pathogens are available online. The thing that remains expensive is a proper BSL-4 lab, to ensure time to tinker without releasing a half-baked product. But with AI assistance, the odds of early failure are dropping rapidly. You might be able to do a one-off print of the Perfect Pathogen, and as long as you're willing to die, spread it widely.
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