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Transnational Thursday for February 13, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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According to the Telegraph, the US is planning to turn Ukraine into a colony: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/17/revealed-trump-confidential-plan-ukraine-stranglehold/

Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.

The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.

So Ukrainian courts are no longer in control. Reasonable from a certain point of view but well into 'unequal treaty' territory.

The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties” for the future monetisation of resources. There will be “a lien on such revenues” in favour of the US. “That clause means ‘pay us first, and then feed your children’,” said one source close to the negotiations.

It states that “for all future licences, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals”. Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects. And so forth, in this vein. It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce.

Now it is the Telegraph, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Still it's extremely obnoxious behaviour from America. First it's "You have a bright future in the West. Come on, we'll totally let you into NATO. Just draft a few million more men, victory is near!". And then it's "hand over all your resource wealth, quickly now. Trusting us was a fatal mistake." If this is the case, then America doesn't even have the straightforward dignity of stabbing a man in the front and robbing him, it's pure villainy: trick him into an unwinnable fight, then demand he empty his pockets.

Talk about debt trap diplomacy!

Time for Russia to go to the one place not corrupted by capitalism!

Gotta be honest, I didn't have it in my bingo cards for 2025 that Europe would need to start preparing against what looks to head towards a possible US invasion.

Shades of Germans + Russians against Poland 1939.

IMO it's more like the British and the French but worse in some respects.

Germany wanted land, demanded it and then took it when Poland refused to hand it over. Russia wanted land, found a pretend excuse, went in and took it. The straightforwardness of the robber.

Britain and France promised to protect Poland and launched the lamest offensive imaginable, into the Saar, before retreating back to the Maginot line. They clearly had no plan to save Poland from Germany and refused to even declare war on Russia (which was a wise move). They made promises that they couldn't keep but never even dreamed of demanding Polish resources as recompense for military assistance.