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Well, I think 90% of the people who write python and can do matrix multiplication can implement arbitrary-sized matrix multiplication in python. (And if I posed a similar problem, like "combine two matrices like in matrix multiplication, but instead of summing the products, just take the maximum", they would likewise come up with a solution, not simply say "that is not in numpy, hence it can't be done".)
By contrast, I would estimate that the fraction of people who grok MM and use excel which could implement the modified problem is less than 20%.
Of course, this is mostly an argument about semantics. I would not call someone who sets an alarm clock on their mobile a programmer, even though they are changing the behavior of a computer system to suit their needs. I don't use spreadsheets, but I occasionally use the unix sed command, which is technically Turing complete. However, like 98% of sed users, what I do with it is not something I would call programming -- I use it for trivial string/RE operations, but do not know how to implement a while loop in it (and also consider it ill fit for anything which requires a while loop). So sed is technically a PL, but most sed users are not sed programmers. Likewise postscript: technically Turing-complete, but the subset of users who use it to express arbitrary computation as opposed to just having it draw glyphs and graphics primitives is almost a null set. Likewise, HTML+CSS+User clicking.
Now, you are correct that Excel has had recursable lambda expressions since 2020, which together with lazy evaluation allows arbitrary computations in a single cell. However, it is my understanding that Excel was popular in the corporate setting even before that, and I would wholeheartedly recommend VBA (*) over writing a recursive lambda function in a spreadsheet cell (with very few (tiny) exceptions).
I will concede though that this is arguing over a definition. If one defines programming rather loosely, then most programs might be invocation of a Photoshop filter. Demand a bit more expressiveness, and Excel is the top PL. Demand still more (like "most users have created a non-halting program either on purpose or by accident at least once"), and Python might be most popular. Put in a bunch of conditions by machine code fetishists ("it only counts if it is compiled to opcodes and run on a physical CPU"), and likely C wins. M-x butterflies and all that.
(*) Now that are five words I had not thought I would utter in that order.
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