sloppy Goppy is a guest poster I host on my substack.
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My Ukraine theory is that the conflict is becoming increasingly unstable and the escalatory equilibrium could break soon, with both Ukraine and Russia attacking vital infrastructure, which would end with Ukraine as a failed sate, and the entire region destabilized.
Largely agree war more likely to be a stalemate. Ukraine probably takes Kherson but the old 2014 lines will be difficult. Even the real Russian army before they lost most of their equipment couldn’t do that.
Russia can’t cripple Ukraine infrastructure in an afternoon. Don’t have the quantity of missiles. And Ukraine is getting better equipment to shoot down missiles.
You neglected the real risks that Russia turns into a failed state. Probably more likely than Ukraine turning into fiefdoms. They’ve United as a people. Revolution in Russia and breaking apart into different ethnic groups with a stub of Russia around Moscow. Lost war loses respect for the regime and Moscow doesn’t have the troops to keep regions in line.
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Notes -
I'm not Sloppy Goppy.
sloppy Goppy is a guest poster I host on my substack.
.
My Ukraine theory is that the conflict is becoming increasingly unstable and the escalatory equilibrium could break soon, with both Ukraine and Russia attacking vital infrastructure, which would end with Ukraine as a failed sate, and the entire region destabilized.
Here's the full take
A few thoughts.
Largely agree war more likely to be a stalemate. Ukraine probably takes Kherson but the old 2014 lines will be difficult. Even the real Russian army before they lost most of their equipment couldn’t do that.
Russia can’t cripple Ukraine infrastructure in an afternoon. Don’t have the quantity of missiles. And Ukraine is getting better equipment to shoot down missiles.
You neglected the real risks that Russia turns into a failed state. Probably more likely than Ukraine turning into fiefdoms. They’ve United as a people. Revolution in Russia and breaking apart into different ethnic groups with a stub of Russia around Moscow. Lost war loses respect for the regime and Moscow doesn’t have the troops to keep regions in line.
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