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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 13, 2025

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People that buy stocks, or coins, are motivated by psychological factors, or false conclusions and aren't necessarily buying based on accurate understanding of their value. Like the expectation that X will keep going up and fear of missing out. The market has always throughout history even as far as hundreds of years ago included speculation and bubbles in it. At any given point market gets some prices wrong. But on the long term the market is wiser. Unless the bubble will go on infinitely, which it won't, stocks and coins which have a grossly inflated value over their fundamentals will have their price go down. People have made plenty of money in bubbles while they have also lost plenty of money after it came crushing down.

If someone wants to get rich by engaging in speculation with DJT stock, or coins, it might even work for a time. But it is still speculation, and it is still the reasonable expectation that the price will crush down eventually. Who knows, like the Hawk Tua girl, with the coin it might even happen soon enough that you won't make money. Or it being DJT has more staying power and those who speculate might become rich if they leave after a point.

It is still speculation though and if anyone wants to do that then speculate away. Just accept the risks.

Moreover, this is why you should never bet against Trump the person. Like DJT stock, $Trump has defied the typical 'pump and dump' trajectory seen in other meme coins, like Hawk Tuah's coin, which imploded to zero right from the gate. But $Trump went up 1000x steadily after it began trading--the opposite trajectory. Trump, like Elon, is truly the master of defying what is possible, or doing the impossible. The usual rules do not apply to them. Throw out your preconceived notions. No pump and dump when it comes to $Trump--the gains hold.

Rules don't apply is just wishful thinking. It is possible that with Trump there might be a bigger speculation window. Plenty of bubbles have happened for years at times.

What you are saying about the market being wise based on current prices and rules not applying is really the philosophy of the greedy investor in a bubble and this perspective has always been proven to be wrong. This doesn't mean that someone who speculates with this coin will not make money for a time. It just means that what we know about markets tell us that the price will go down at some point. Predicting exactly when that will happen is pretty tough.

To the extend prices are mostly based on psychology, of course that can and will change. For various factors like the end of Trump's presidency or him actually dying. Or who knows, like with hawk tua coin, people might think to sell it because of these factors and the decline happens during Trump's presidency. Or maybe it happens sooner. Who even knows.