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Notes -
Expecting it if the Powers That Be are benevolent enough to want to maintain or improve the standard of living of the billions of people made obsolete? It seems like a necessity, since I consider it unlikely that baseline humans can be augmented to be be competitive with AGI without massive subsidies, and the end result will likely be indistinguishable (I don't necessarily consider this a bad outcome).
Probably true, but not reliably so, and there might well be a period of severe pain along the way. It's well worth preparing for the worst case scenario that isn't just instant death.
"Extremely difficult problems" encompasses a range of difficulties that extend all the way till literally impossible. I think solving aging is a $200 billion and twenty years problem (give or take a hundred billion or a decade) whereas terraforming Mars is, by most estimates, a $several trillion and a century problem.
I would be rather surprised if we didn't end up with anti-aging by 2050, and the majority of the probability mass I'd expect to assign would be in things like WW3, societal collapse or AI x-risk. In other words, I expect that dying from old age is unlikely for us, and if we do die, it's because something else got us first.
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