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PaperclipPerfector  5d ago (text post)   2516 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for January 10, 2025

Be advised: this thread is not for serious in-depth discussion of weighty topics (we have a link for that), this thread is not for anything Culture War related. This thread is for Fun. You got jokes? Share 'em. You got silly questions? Ask 'em.

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Anyone else playing Metaculus? I had a terrible 2023, mostly because I did not have any idea how a number of new features worked. I did much better in 2024.

This year in 41st in Peer Accuracy scores and 251st in Baseline accuracy. I have no idea how that stacks against all the other users, but it seems...not bad? Part of what limited my baseline is I only answered 49 questions out of almost 1k+ (though I may have bombed more if I answered more--who knows). TemetNoscoe #1 player answered 570 questions. Sheesh!! I finally figured out Peer Accuracy scores and in a way I prefer them as it's more of a comparison to how you did against other predictors in the questions you actually answered.

This question about refugees was a massive bomb for me :https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20784/ I also blew this one about two lunar landings: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20919/ I got this terrible Andrea Bocelli question wrong, but outperformed everyone... https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30252/

Overall, I'm kind of grumpy about Metaculus. I hate the spread questions, which I just refuse to do anymore. The resolution criteria is often ridiculous. I don't know how much longer I'm going to play, but I do like feeling like I'm kind of able to do ok at predicting stuff.

How'd everyone (anyone?) else do?

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