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Notes -
Do you think it is possible to win a Republican primary in a red state while supporting elective first-trimester abortions? I don't. That is why Dobbs is a political opportunity for the Democrats (as well as, obviously, a policy opportunity for pro-life Republicans). The pro-life right used to be able to define their big tent as "anyone who thinks Roe and Casey go too far - which as you point out includes the median voter in most developed democracies. But once they have to start governing, that ceases to be fudgeable. The gap between the median Republican primary voter (who is to the right of the median Republican because of differential turnout) and the median voter is not bridgeable, and either the Republicans will need to find a way of throwing their base under the bus without being primaried, or to take the heat from supporting an unpopular policy. (Allowing state-level referenda like the one that confirmed the legality of abortion in Kansas is probably the easiest way to do this).
The evidence from the rest of the world is that abortion is important enough that the median voter will get what they want in the end. I suspect that means elective first-trimester abortions in all but the reddest of red states. Their is also a (in my view slim) possibility that gerrymandered state legislatures will be able to enforce the preferences of the median Republican primary voter while telling the median voter to pound sand, but if that happens then those states are not democracies.
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