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Notes -
You have some good write-up on why their business model with Starlink is inherently unprofitable ? It does seem somewhat preposterous.
Also, I don't think you are right, they have something like 2/3rds of the commercial launch market.
Why? The engines work, are vastly better than anything else on account of the physical properties of methane. Amazing lsp too.
If the system works, it's going to be possible to put 100 tons of cargo, on the moon, for cca 60 million dollars (you have to refuel in high orbit like 4 times), so something like 1% of the cost of a Saturn V launch.
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