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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 6, 2025

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He was already president for 4 years and nothing happened.

I do not agree that Trump is a fascist, but I always found the argument of "nothing happened last time" to be super weak. Trump himself repeats that he had people in his administration constantly get in his way and prevent him from doing what he wanted to do. This is something both Trump loyalists and #resist people both agree on.

Not that I disagree, but I think the argument is more like "last time you all screamed he was orange Hitler, and nothing happened. Why should we believe you this time?"

There's a current amongst the left that makes the most recent right wing candidate out to be literally the biggest threat to democracy ever. After a while, it becomes obvious that there isn't any information value from these statements.

"Nothing happened" is obviously false, given January 6th and the events leading up to it.

Trump made a serious effort to stay in office despite losing the 2020 election, including (definitely) assembling a riotous mob outside the Capitol in order to intimidate Pence and Congress and (based on poorly-corroborated eyewitness testimony, but not seriously challenged) meeting retired generals in the Oval Office to discuss the possibility of a military autogolpe. That isn't nothing.

The people who said that Trump was a threat to democracy were right, even though American democracy was in fact able to brush off the threat.

Out of curiosity, where would you say the appropriate place to protest would have been? There was behaviour during the election that seemed very suspicious to the layperson (the water main breaking causing poll watchers to be sent home, which was followed by votes continuing to be tallied). The attempts to get the legal system to address it seemed to be brushed off (and I'm saying 'seemed', not 'were', because you don't have to be right to protest, you just need to believe something was wrong). The people absolutely believed that the election has been stolen, and showed up for what was actually an extremely peaceful protest, especially compared to the BLM protests earlier in the year.

We've seen similar protests from left-wing sources occupying state buildings to prevent votes (unfortunately, not being American, I can't recall the specific state; I believe it was some sort of trans bathroom bill that caused a Texan legislature to have to reconvene later, but I'm open to corrections if someone can find it). The same people who complain about Trump being a unique threat to democracy are silent on those protests.

There really isn't any set of events that could've led to the January 6 protests having Trump installed in office, short of convincing everyone that the vote had been stolen (in which case, yes, they would've been right to overturn it).

Out of curiosity, where would you say the appropriate place to protest would have been?

Given that the Constitution requires States to choose their electors and Congress to count the votes of the electors chosen by the States, the appropriate place to protest a choice of electors which does not reflect the popular vote would whatever the usual and customary place for large-scale protest is in the relevant State capital. Given US norms (which are not substantially different to other advanced democracies) I wouldn't have said that protesting on the Capitol lawn was inappropriate, but doing so while openly armed, carrying signs saying "Hang Mike Pence" and erecting a gallows crosses a line even if the building wasn't stormed. (FWIW, I would consider open-carrying at a political process to be per se a threat against government officials and therefore prosecutable, but I am aware that American gun culture sees things differently).

The people absolutely believed that the election has been stolen, and showed up for what was actually an extremely peaceful protest, especially compared to the BLM protests earlier in the year.

The ignorance of Trump's supporters is relevant to their culpability, but not his. Given his access to information, if Trump believed the things he was saying about how he won the election then he is sufficiently delusional that Pence should have invoked the 25th.

There really isn't any set of events that could've led to the January 6 protests having Trump installed in office, short of convincing everyone that the vote had been stolen (in which case, yes, they would've been right to overturn it).

Eastman wrote a memo telling Pence how to install Trump. I don't know what would have happened if Pence had followed the instructions in the memo and declared Trump elected, but it wouldn't have been good whoever ended up being inaugurated. There were at least five obvious ways that the January 6 protests could have "worked" in the sense of using political violence to cause an unnecessary constitutional crisis, although only the first two seem plausible to me:

  1. Pence, in fear for his physical safety, changes his mind and calls the election for Trump as presiding officer over the joint session using the Eastman memo as a guide.
  2. Pence is killed/hospitalised/in sufficient danger that he is whisked to a secure location by his Secret Service detail, Chuck Grassley presides over a reconvened joint session as President pro tem of the Senate, and (whether out of personal conviction, political calculation, or fear) calls the election for Trump per the Eastman memo.
  3. The count is delayed long enough for Team Trump to successfully run one of their other schemes, probably having another go at getting Republican state legislatures in states that voted for Biden to endorse the fake electors.
  4. The rioters manage to grab the chest containing the physical certificates of vote and burn them, dump them in the Potomac or similar, and an attempt to gather the backup certificates held by federal judges in each state fails, meaning that the electoral count cannot be run in a regular fashion.
  5. The disorder gives Trump an excuse to replace the Capitol Police with troops loyal to him, who proceed to coerce Congress into upholding challenges to the contentious electoral votes.