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Blockade IS a hot war already. The concern isn't hot war with TW, but hot war with US by deterring US intervention. Start with mining to disable harbours which is grayscale enough not to be considerd "kinetic" but more than enough to stop bulk energy/calorie goods. Shifts onus on TW to escalate to homeland strikes. Cratering runways is just exta level of petty that prevents strategic materials from being Berlin airlifted.
Why would PRC hit shipping not bound for TW, i.e. engage in commercial ships within 12nm of TW/PRC territorial waters? There were old studies about redirecting shipping east of TW outside of Chinese EEZ with increased fuel + insurance costs measured in low double digit percentages. As someone who followed this space for 20+ years, the narrative that war in TW strait or adjacent will ruin regional shipping was propaganda for giving TW greater significance prior to semiconductors.
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As with resumption of PRC TW hotwar, having mainland hit by TW is assumed. In Syria, US launched ~100 cruise missiles / TLAMs for 8 small targets, of which non trivial amounts were intercepted using antiquated RU anti air systems. Estimates for # of missiles needed to degrade PRC's SCS bases is high several 100s, i.e. significant % of USN's deployed VLS in region. Extensive concrete infra soaks a lot of hits. In UKR almost 4000? (have not kept up to date) RU missiles did managable damage on UKR war capacity. UKR has fraction of a fraction worth of targest relative to PRC and even less ability to recover. You're grossly overestimating the damage potential of TW stockpiles.
Just from a weaponeering perspective, TW has minimal capacity to take out an impactful amount of PRC infra, especially huge ports, which PRC can repair rapidly because TW can't generate high volume of fires in a single salvo, while their stockpiles even with projected acquistions are still paltry, which wouldn't survive PRC retaliatory fire anyway. Assuming the they can launch a surprise salvo without being discovered - there's limited places on a small island that is heavily monitored to bunker/prep launchers. TW can crank defense spending to 10% of GDP and island still won't have capacity to conventionally degreate PRC in any meaningful or prolonged way. The quantity (and current quality) differential is just that great, i.e. PRC aviation can drop 1000s of mines on TW ports in one sortie. It's not the preferred blockade scenario in terms of strategic flexibility, but in terms of blockading the island into sealed crypt, it is that trivially easy.
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