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Notes -
Well, I don't presume it would be easier to throw out Mexicans--I'm saying it's easier to throw out people you gave H1-B visas to as opposed to people you can't find because you don't know who they are or where they went. they aren't merely here legally, but have been granted the esteemed blessing of the state, which can be revoked at any time.
The US will have immigration always and forever. It's not a switch, it's a dial. The Biden admin, cranked it so far the knob came off. Whether or not H1-B should be expanded, decreased or eliminated is not a conversation of consequence. We're talking sub 100k numbers not multiple millions. The real immigration issue that voters care about --the millions of voters who crossed party lines or got off their asses to vote for Trump--is the open border. Almost no one cares or even thinks about H1-B visas. It was a foolish topic to even bring up--unless, of course, you're trying to muddy the waters and misdirect people's attention.
I think we can squish this into a prediction space. I don't care about H1-B visas but my prediction is "no change" (+/- 10k total approved visas) with 75% confidence. I think I predicted overall deportations somewhere else, but I expect that number (currently around 270k) to grow by no more than 10% by the midterm elections, 85% confidence. I think both H1-B will not change meaningfully, deportations will not grow meaningfully and the conversation will be about a failed discourse around H1-B to obfuscate the failure in securing the border and deporting the mass of migrants from the Biden era. I suppose we can make a bet if you want, or just see how I did in two years. I wouldn't hate to be wrong...
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