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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 30, 2024

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To start with, this program is MASSIVELY popular with employers. The program has a statutory limit of 85,000 visas per year, but employers routinely receive approval for more than 800k applications per year (868k, or 10x the limit, in 2024).

I was looking for the part where the "900k application approvals" somehow became 900k visas, but he never got there. the 85k number seems to still be the amount we actually give out per year. I'm going to stick with the 85K number. His entire post seems to be focused on the applications, but I don't see how it's relevant to the debate. Every person in the world could apply for every role and we'd still only give out X number of visas.

I'm not surprised these are popular programs. It clearly keeps the costs down and from my personal experience, many of these large firms already have considerable populations of Indian employees and a working climate that is comfortable for them and self-reinforcing.

The big question that I haven't seen discussed is what's the actual jobs situation? Who's battling and for what? I asked ChatGPt for basic STEM jobs data. it seems reasonable:

Determining the exact number of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) workers hired annually in the U.S. is challenging due to the lack of specific data on yearly hires. However, we can infer trends based on employment growth projections and existing workforce statistics.

Current STEM Workforce and Growth Projections:

Current Employment: As of 2023, approximately 10.7 million workers are employed in STEM occupations in the U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Projected Growth: Employment in STEM occupations is expected to grow by 10.4% from 2023 to 2033, adding about 1.1 million new jobs over this period. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Annual Hiring Estimates:

Average Annual Growth: The projected addition of 1.1 million STEM jobs over 10 years suggests an average annual increase of approximately 110,000 new positions.

Replacement Needs: Beyond new positions, the labor market must also account for replacements due to retirements and other workforce exits. While specific data for STEM occupations is limited, considering both growth and replacement needs, the annual hiring requirement is likely higher than the average growth figure.

89k or 110K annual positions is a lot! Based on the other numbers, I'll grant H1-Bs something around 10% of the total STEM workforce.

Then we ask, "well what about native US STEM grads?

According to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), U.S. postsecondary institutions conferred the following number of STEM degrees and certificates in the 2020–2021 academic year:

Associate's Degrees: Approximately 126,000 Bachelor's Degrees: Approximately 453,000 Master's Degrees: Approximately 168,000 Doctoral Degrees: Approximately 44,000 This totals to about 791,000 STEM degrees and certificates awarded during that period.

So we have 110k jobs annually for 800k grads + 90k H1B

Maybe everyone is too focused on STEM? Seems like there's a bigger issue in overproduction that dwarfs the H1-B discussion. From my perspective, the problem is that real advancement in tech requires the input of an extremely rare type of tech-genius -- let's call them huckleberries. In the real-world, most people are mid-level, mid-IQ flunkies doing make-work in Excel.

Back to the the X post:

You can see where I’m going with this. A casual perusal of the data shows that this isn’t a program for the top 0.1% of talent, as it’s been described. This is simply a way to recruit hundreds of thousands of relatively lower-wage IT and financial services professionals.

the X post backs up my claim that these are grunt-level positions. These are low-middle class folks who, by dint of a national culture overwhelmingly focused on STEM education, are trying to lever themselves up into the (American) upper-middle class.

From my perspective in a senior role in Fin-tech/IT who has done a reasonable amount of hiring over the past decade, we can't find good people for the high-complexity, high-responsibility roles we need filled. I've never hired an H1-B applicant as they've never passed an initial interview. I can also count them on one hand. The program simply does not concern me. If they're competing for jobs, they aren't the ones I'm trying to fill.

I maintain my claim this is not a big deal in the near or long term -- not nearly as big of a deal as STEM over-production in the age of AI. I also maintain it's a diversion from the real issue which is an open US-Mexico border and millions of low-skilled, unaccountable unknowns that will never be found let alone repatriated. It is a debate over wallpaper as the house burns down. Ending it won't do much, expanding it won't do much. What the discussion does instead is prime everyone to get upset about easily controlled, legal, largely pro-social and pro-American immigrants instead of 10x randos as it's a guarantee that the campaign promises of "closing the border and sending all the migrants back" will not happen.