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Notes -
Very few people will, or ever do. Especially in punditry.
There was a comment a while back about intelligence, which argued that, despite smart people's inclination to probilistic thinking and acknowledging uncertainty, this comes off as ignorance and weakness to most people. While it's probably a sign of high intelligence to be able to critique any measure and admit gaps in knowledge, what most people are looking for in intelligence is being able to meet expectations quickly. People think you're smart if you ace a test, not if you deconstruct the test's concepts (and even if you're right).
I think that's what's going on with punditry -- pundits optimize for looking smart, not being smart. It's also why scientists often come off as aloof nerds: they refuse to speak in certainties, and hedge everything. And that reflects their command of the knowledge base -- they know the known unknowns and account for the unknown unknowns -- but comes off to many as sneaky, shifty, unreliable.
I have no doubt the average scientist is smarter than the average pundit or journalist. But the latter two have made a living off of persuading the masses, and to do that you can't ever admit fault or leave open a gap. Truth may not require conflict theory, but politics does. And the politicos are just doing what they must to ace the test.
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