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Alternatively, it will never feel obvious, and although people will have access to increasingly powerful AI, people will never feel as if AGI has been reached because AI will not be autoagentic, and as long as people feel like they are using a tool instead of working with a peer, they will always argue about whether or not AGI has been reached, regardless of the actual intelligence and capabilities on display.
(This isn't so much a prediction as a alternative possibility to consider, mind you!)
Even in this scenario, AI might get so high level that it will feel autoagentic.
For example, right now I ask ChatGPT to write a function for me. Next year, a whole module. Then, in 2026, it writes an entire app. I could continue by asking it to register an LLC, start a business plan, make an app, and sell it on the app store. But why stop there? Why not just, "Hey ChatGPT go make some money and put it in my account".
At this point, even though a human is ultimate making the command, it's so high level that it will feel as if the AI is agentic.
And, obviously, guardrails will prevent a lot of this. But there are now several companies making high level fundamental models. Off the top of my head we have: OpenAI, Grok, Claude, Llama, and AliBaba. It doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that a company with funding on the order of $100 million will be able to repurpose a model and remove the guardrails.
(Also just total speculation on my part!)
Yes, I think this is quite possible. Particularly since more and more of human interaction is mediated through Online, AI will feel closer to "a person" since you will experience them in basically the same way. Unless it loops around so that highly-agentic AI does all of our online work, and we spend all our time hanging out with our friends and family...
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