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Yes, I agree with this. I just think that trading with China is more expensive than it seems up front because it raises a lot of vulnerabilities that need to be mitigated against (or Europe can ignore them and then risk the outcome). But who knows, maybe it's best to run the risk and not mitigate in the long run since you can ramp up profits in the short term!
Well, my point here is more that if the US and EU (broadly) aren't allies, the EU would need to plan for a potential conflict with the US, otherwise they are at the mercy of US coercive diplomacy. (I'll just add that the EU pivot to China is me accepting Tree's scenario - I'm not sure how likely this is.) I don't foresee a near-term US-EU war (in part because I am not sure "the EU" will end up being unified enough to be a military alliance) but I don't think adopting a policy of non-defense is the wisest long-run strategy - even if the United States doesn't take advantage of it, others might. I will add that at least one German defense commenter I've read has spoken about the need for Europe to secure itself against the US militarily - I am not certain if that's remotely within the Overton window, possibly it's just literally one guy. But it's an interesting perspective to read.
But, hedging aside, scenarios are fun, so, a hypothetical:
The year is 2039. It's been a bad decade for American relations with Europe, between the President's 2026 revelation that FVEYS had been aware of Ukraine's plans to sabotage Nord Stream, the 2027 "annexation" of Greenland - accomplished without Danish consent via a referendum in Greenland - and the 2029 Sino-American war, which ended as abruptly as it began when the United States retaliated against a devastating Chinese conventional first strike on its naval and air assets by using nuclear weapons against the Chinese amphibious fleet in harbor.
It's also been a bad decade for Europe generally. Since their pivot to China, they've been subject to escalating tariffs from the United States. Their new chief trade partner is still finding unexploded mines in its coastal areas, and has been spending money on domestic disaster clean up - as devastating as the US nuclear weapons strikes were, the fallout from Taiwan's missile attack on the Three Gorges Dam was more devastating, even if it was not radioactive. And Russia, still licking its wounds, has not been inclined to forgive or forget the EU's support for Ukraine - which still weighs down Europe considerably, as Russia's destruction of its energy infrastructure has resulted in Ukraine drawing power from the European grid, starving it of resources.
Perhaps it is to distract from the economic malaise and renewed impetus for Catalan secession that Spain has been pushing the issue of Gibraltar harder than usual, and in 2039 a long-awaited referendum takes place. To everyone's surprise, Gibraltar votes - narrowly - to assert its sovereign right to leave English governance, opening the door to its long-awaited return to Spanish territory. However, England refuses to recognize the referendum, citing alleged voter irregularities, possible Russian interference, and the facial implausibility of the results given past elections, and moves to reinforce Gibraltar with additional troops. The EU makes various official statements, resolutions, and pronouncements that England is to respect the will of its voters.
When England refuses to respond to Brussels, the Spanish military overruns Gibraltar's tripline defense force. England responds with airstrikes from its naval task force, only to lose her only operational aircraft carrier to a Spanish submarine. Deprived of air cover for a surface fleet, England plans to conduct a far blockade of the Strait with nuclear submarines and, to facilitate this, launches cruise missile strikes on Spanish maritime patrol aircraft. Spanish intelligence assesses that US recon assets were involved in facilitating the strike, and retaliates by announcing the Strait of Gibraltar is closed to US traffic, contrary to international law.
The United States, which has already provided material aid to England during the conflict, declares a state of war exists between the United States and Spain (again!). With US naval assets depleted due to the war with China, Congress issues letters of marque and reprisal, authorizing the search and seizure of any ship that is or may be carrying military or dual-purpose goods to Spain.
In practice, this is nearly any ship with a European destination, and US venture capitalists have a very broad definition of what constitutes "dual-purpose goods" and "Spanish destination." It's not long before all of continental Europe of smarting under the humiliation of having their ships boarded and cargoes seized by American privateers, who within six months are operating effectively in both the Arabian Sea and the Atlantic. With Spanish naval assets tied up in a game of cat-and-mouse with British nuclear submarines, Europe must decide whether to continue enduring the consequences, or commit its naval assets to breaking the Anglo-American stranglehold and restoring its freedom of navigation.
(Do I think any of the above is likely? Not particularly. But it was fun to write up! I'd be interested to hear your scenario.)
That was a fun read!
Thanks :)
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