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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 9, 2024

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What impact do you figure this event had on the probability that a startup pitching "reform medical insurance" gets funded a month from now?

It will have a negative effect. This is the same logic that leads dictators to execute generals who lose battles and then wonder why they can't get any good generals. The would-be reformer will avoid the industry entirely now.

Prediction: UHC denies fewer claims and premiums skyrocket. Again.

Health insurance for my family costs over $20,000 a year and covers very little. This asshole just made it go up again. Thanks, bro.

Well, I don't intend to make the case that what the shooter did was in fact positive-EV with respect to your or my value function here. But given your prediction, there are possible value functions that he could have that would make that outcome positive-sum for him - he would just need to have the right mixture of concavity (weighing outcomes of the form "one individual denied prohibitively expensive life-saving surgery" much more than one million times "moderate misery due to your finances being wrecked by high insurance premiums") and aversion to surprise/betrayal (someone who thought they were covered being unexpectedly denied being a much bigger deal than someone not being able to afford insurance at all with higher premiums). The former is basically just left-wing care-foundation ethics, and the latter is common.

The would-be reformer will avoid the industry entirely now.

Surely depends on what kind of reform they planned. There are reform plans that do not entail becoming a successful insurance CEO with a target painted on your back. You might think that any such plans are reforms for the worse, but the shooter may think otherwise (e.g. see above).