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-_-_-_-_-  13d ago (noahpinion.blog)   1800 thread views

Noah Smith: Manufacturing is a war now

noahpinion.blog

Industrial policy has been a frequent subject on Smith's blog, for those who don't follow it. (He's for it, and thinks that Biden's industrial policy was mostly good - it's worth following the links in this post.) This post focuses on defense-related geopolitical industrial policy goals and pros and cons of anticipated changes under the incoming Trump administration and Chinese responses. Particularly, he highlights two major things China can do: Restrict exports of raw materials (recently announced) and use their own industrial policy to hamper the West's peacetime industrial policy (de facto policy of the last 30 years). These are not extraordinary insights, but it's a good primer on the current state of affairs and policies to pay attention to in the near-future.

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The Chinese have no great imperialist instinct

Throughout most of it's history China had a tributary empire, regarding itself as the centre of civilisation (hence the 'Middle/Central Kingdom'). Neighbouring states were generally forced to adopt Chinese customs and pay tribute (with those that didn't being considered barbarians). It also expanded considerably over the centuries.

It wasn't colonial in the same way as Western European powers were and didn't have overseas territorial expansion or settler colonies (presumably largely due to China having such extensive land borders and territory to expand into), but it was definitely imperialistic.

One might argue that imperial Chinese history has little to no bearing on the posture of the modern Chinese state. As I understand we don't have good insight into the internal dynamics and political factions within the CCP, so it's difficult to talk definitively, but I do think it's pertinent that:

  • The period from the 19th century up to the formation of the current People's Republic of China is known as the Century of Humiliation, which emphasises China's loss of sovereignty and exploitation at the hands of European powers. Restoration of territorial integrity and becoming a global superpower is seen as a response to this. Personally, I think that the long history of China as the perceived centre of civilisation commanding tribute from surrounding nations is undoubtably relevant here.
  • Unlike say the US, China is a major importer of food (with relatively little arable land compared to its population) and energy (especially oil). Even if it wanted to, due to this it cannot be isolationist in the same way that the US now arguably could since the advent of fracking.

In terms of foreign relations policy the argument is more mixed. Certainly the CCP's stated foreign relations principles generally emphasise territorial respect, non-aggression and non-interference, and as I understand it the CCP does generally vote in accordance with these at the UN. However:

  • The CCP is frequently belligerent with its neighbours, and has the view that any territory formally part of the Chinese empire is rightfully theirs.
  • While it is always difficult to determine intent, it's quite plausible that this foreign policy position is a temporary posture. Its origins are from Xiaoping who came to power of the CCP in the 1970s, and while it emphasised the avoidance of controversy and use of cooperation, it was based on a Chinese idiom about biding one's time while building up strength.
  • Since the 2010s, and with China being in a much stronger position, the CCP's public diplomacy has definitely been much more combative (being colloquially dubbed 'Wolf Warrior' diplomacy).

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