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PaperclipPerfector  13d ago (text post)   1035 thread views

Transnational Thursday for November 28, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Just as a general awareness point for Trump-administration Ukraine Policy-

President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Keith Kellogg to be special envoy to Ukraine and Russia in his second administration.

Keith Kellogg is one of the authors of the American First Institute white paper that was called 'Trump's peace plan' during the election. This is the one that was regularly (mis)reported as Trump was going to force Ukraine to agree to Russian terms by withholding aid.

What the Kellogg proposal says on page 16, emphasis mine, is-

America First is not isolationist, nor is it a call to retreat America from engagement in the world. An America First approach to national security is, however, characteristically distinct from a foreign policy establishment that often keeps the United States mired in endless wars to the detriment of the country by putting idealistic principles ahead of the interests of the American people. There is a pathway forward in Ukraine in which America can keep its own interests prioritized while also playing a role in bringing the largest war in Europe since World War II to an end. That role must be through decisive, America First leadership where bold diplomacy paves the way to an end-state. What we should not continue to do is to send arms to a stalemate that Ukraine will eventually find difficult to win. This should start with a formal U.S. policy to bring the war to a conclusion.

Specifically, it would mean a formal U.S. policy to seek a cease-fire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict. The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement. Future American military aid, however, will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia.

To convince Putin to join peace talks, President Biden and other NATO leaders should offer to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees. In their April 2023 Foreign Affairs article, Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan proposed that in exchange for abiding by a cease-fire, a demilitarized zone, and participating in peace talks, Russia could be offered some limited sanctions relief. Ukraine would not be asked to relinquish the goal of regaining all its territory, but it would agree to use diplomacy, not force, with the understanding that this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough which probably will not occur before Putin leaves office. Until that happens, the United States and its allies would pledge to only fully lift sanctions against Russia and normalize relations after it signs a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine. We also call for placing levies on Russian energy sales to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction.

By enabling Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength while also communicating to Russia the consequences if it fails to abide by future peace talk conditions, the United States could implement a negotiated end-state with terms aligned with U.S. and Ukrainian interests. Part of this negotiated end-state should include provisions in which we establish a long-term security architecture for Ukraine’s defense that focuses on bilateral security defense. Including this in a Russia-Ukraine peace deal offers a path toward long-term peace in the region and a means of preventing future hostilities between the two nations.

Regrettably, we see no prospect that the Biden Administration will do anything to end the Ukraine War and may implement policies to make the conflict worse. Nevertheless, the above are a few creative ideas for an America First approach to end the war and allow Ukraine to rebuild. President Donald Trump also has a strategy to end the war that he has not fully revealed. We are hopeful there will be a new president in January 2025 to implement these American First ideas to end this devastating conflict.

The Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people will have trouble accepting a negotiated peace that does not give them back all of their territory or, at least for now, hold Russia responsible for the carnage it inflicted on Ukraine. Their supporters will also. But as Donald Trump said at the CNN town hall in 2023, “I want everyone to stop dying.” That’s our view, too. It is a good first step.

This isn't new news, so not much else to say that hasn't been said before- the proposal doesn't meet stated Russian conditions or pre-war demands, peace is hard, and all that. This isn't to challenge anyone's opinion on the merits of even feasibility of the Trump peace plan.

What hasn't been said as much is more about Kellogg himself.

From his wiki-, Kellogg was a former national security adviser in the previous Trump administration, and is and retired lieutenant general in the US military. His military service included Vietnam War service with the 101st Airborne Division, and Gulf War with the 82nd Airborne, which is to say he was in some of the more prestigious parts of the US expeditionary military. His wiki also says he was in the Pentagon on 9-11, and after retiring was involved in the immediate post-occupation Iraq.

This is not, in other words, a Russophile or anti-military dissident of the national security complex, but a literal career Cold War veteran, albeit one who spent more of his career in Asia and the Middle East than Europe or NATO. People expecting Trump's Ukraine policy to be a repudiation of the American military-industrial complex and Pentagon elite are going to be counting on someone who was a Pentagon elite from the Cold War military-industrial complex.

What is also interesting, from a slightly more culture-war perspective, are two points of exposure as he's entering major political prominence:

Personal life Kellogg is the second oldest of four children. His older brother, Mike Kellogg, is a former Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge. His sister, Kathy, is a former actress who is now a clinical psychologist and his younger brother, Jeff, is a former Long Beach city councilman, served as President of the Long Beach Community College District Board of Trustees, and now currently works for the California Community Colleges system.

Which is to say- his family has somewhat significant- and still relevant- ties to the California political ecosystem, which for those less familiar is extremely Democratic.

Further, Kellogg was a witness in the White House during the events of Jan 6, even testifying to the Congressional select committee afterwards.

During the 2021 United States Capitol attack Kellogg defended Pence's decision not to leave the Capitol. While the Secret Service was attempting to get Pence to ride to a safer place, Pence insisted on staying. Kellogg reportedly told Anthony Ornato, former Secret Service and at the time White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, why Pence would not be evacuated, “You can’t do that, Tony. Leave him where he’s at. He’s got a job to do. I know you guys too well. You’ll fly him to Alaska if you have a chance. Don’t do it.” Kellogg made it clear that Pence would stay, even if he needed to remain all night."[27] Kellogg is viewed as a "key witness" in the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack because he was with Trump in the White House as the attack occurred. Kellogg testified under oath to the committee in December 2021,[28] telling them that the president's staff encouraged the president to take immediate action to quell the unrest, but that he refused.[29]

I make no claims on objectivity how the article has been edited, though I'll be interested if it hasn't changed significantly in the months to come.

Instead, the point I'd make is that whatever Kellogg testified before, it doesn't seem to have ruined his standing with Trump... but as the Trump administration enters the point where personnel meet politics (and eat political heat), Kellogg is not obviously unassailable. Whether pressure on or via his family in California, or a reinterpretation of Jan 6 for political hay (or just to disrupt), there are lines of attack that could be used to make his attempts to deliver a Ukraine policy more difficult.

Or at least, more difficult than it already is. We shall see.

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