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Notes -
I mean you are always going to run into study design limitations. In this case most of the money in medicine wants NPs to look good so there isn't good funding for this. The VA (generally) has pretty much the worst healthcare in the country and the quality of care in the ED is also pretty much the worst in the hospital (because of how it gets misused). This is likely to flatten the curve a little bit - good doctors almost never work at the VA.
Psychiatry is a better example - psychiatric interviews and pharmacology are the most complicated in medicine. Mental health care NPs are terrible at both of these things, give people unnecessary medications and incorrect diagnoses and are legible experienced as lower quality by patients and staff with some regularity. In general hospital medicine nurses line up each other and that includes NPs but in most mental health care settings nurses will say they think the NPs are shit.
However the bad outcomes are mostly increased lifetime mortality and risk of side effects 20 years down the line when the patient is seeing someone else. This becomes effectively impossible to study so we don't.
Now you could argue that you don't really care about those problems and if its not obvious their is a skill difference in outcomes lets save money, who cares if people have the wrong medication or diagnosis. But that goes back to the ED stuff - you have a difference in mortality and morbidity, it may be small but most Americans value "the best possible" not "good enough."
Also, since this is why people normally bring it up - if you magically paid all doctors NPs salaries and didn't really change anything else......healthcare costs wouldn't go down at all in any substantive way.
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