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Notes -
I agree with your conclusions, but disagree with your approach on 'what did they actually say' as a defense against Russian red liens threats. That's providing an overly strict definition of 'red lines' which assumes Russia actually provides clear coherent red lines and does so specifically via Putin, which isn't really how Russia operates.
Russia routinely provides a variety of framings / warnings / threats by different actors within the government. None of these have any actual binding power- Putin's own flip-flops/lies/whatevers have a long story, but the same applies across the foreign ministry, the military, and any other communication channel you like. None of these are absolutely authoritative, and any of these warnings may be ignored, or dismissed, or forgotten as useful.
What Russia does is more of retroactively justify an action based on some previous claim of a red line. There's always a 'our previous warning was ignored' warning to find, even as when Russia is making these warnings it uses them in a more aggressive-bounding function (in the sense of claiming more expansive red lines than one actually has, so that you can get more concessions without making a direct threat).
So when you say something like this-
-this is wrong, because reminding everyone of Russia's nuclear doctrine is how Russia regularly makes threats, because Russia's nuclear doctrine is deliberately vague enough to create space to justify a response. That Russia routinely does not carry through with those justifications is irrelevant to the claim that it's not a threat, because if Russia were to carry through, then Russia would point to something like-
-as the proof that it warned (i.e. threatened) beforehand.
In other words, it's a motte-and-bailey. It's a threat until it's challenged and retreats to the position of not being a threat, unless there's a counter-attack afterwards in which case it totally was a threat.
Well, perhaps the term I used ("saber-rattling") makes more sense in the context of Russia than the "red-line" term, which is traditionally how Americans frame their responses.
To the OP's point, though, I think it's fairly unlikely (but more on that below) that Russia will use nuclear weapons in response to ATACMS as the result of most foreseeable and probable events. And if they do, it's extremely unlikely that they use them against the United States. So - unless you disagree - Russia saying "hey if the United States gives Ukraine enough weapons to create a strategic threat to our state we will respond with nuclear force" probably isn't a statement that's being issued to provide "we warned you" cover, since it's unlikely that Russia responds with nuclear weapons except in the specific circumstances they mentioned, which are not likely to happen since it's unlikely the US provides support necessary for Ukraine to pull something of that magnitude off, perhaps due to all the saber-rattling by Russia. Unless you actually think Russia will pop a tactical over a few ATACMS - which would be an interesting argument, and I'd be very happy to hear it :)
I will say that I think Russia has some unusual ideas of what constitutes an existential threat. There's a story that they almost cracked open the silos over a Norwegian rocket launch in Yeltsin's time because they thought it could be a preface to a full-blown attack, and I've heard that the reason they are so concerned about the AEGIS Ashore sites in Romania is because they worry they could be used as a decapitation weapon (any antiballistic missile can technically be used as a ground attack missile...) So I can see a situation where they are preparing cover against a counter-attack because they think Ukraine will pull something like that, or they are afraid they will think Ukraine is pulling like that, and respond accordingly. Let's say hypothetically they use a nuclear cruise missile against a HIMARS they mistakenly(?) assess is being loaded with a WMD. In which case, I agree, the long string of "we told you so" would be helpful to them. But I kinda doubt they are planning to use a tactical nuke in the normal course of events and are laying a trail to justify that.
Personally, from where I sit right now, I think as long as the US is holding Ukraine's hands, they will keep aiming at random ammo dumps, the Russians will remind everyone of their nuclear doctrine periodically, and no nuclear weapons are likely be used (although I reserve the right to change my mind in the face of exciting new evidence!)
And I'd like to say again I agree with your conclusion on Russia nuclear weapon usage and saber rattling!
This was purely a dissent on how the Russian state communicates threats. :-)
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