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PaperclipPerfector  10d ago (text post)   33693 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024

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Rubio hasn't been formally confirmed yet, has he? It's "sources say" but sources have said all sorts of stuff that hasn't happened. One theory is that Trump team is leaking fake info to various sources to see who passes it on and thus reveals unreliability.

Assuming this is true, though...

This looks like the same mistake Trump made appointing Tillerson in his first term.

Tillerson was sacked for lack of personal loyalty and was replaced with even more hawkish and neoconnish Pompeo. If Rubio gets in then it's just proof that it's not a mistake, it's what Trump intends to do.

If the image that Trump supporters (and opponents) have constructed in their heads of Trump that goes majorly against the grain of the general thrust of postwar American foreign policy differs from reality... well, that can't be helped. In general, foreign policy tends to the be one thing where political changes don't usually lead to large differences in course.

Nobody gets confirmed until Trump takes office…

If the image that Trump supporters (and opponents) have constructed in their heads of Trump that presents some sort of a major different to the general thrust of postwar American foreign policy differs from reality... well, that can't be helped. In general, foreign policy tends to the be one thing where political changes don't usually lead to large differences in course.

This, mostly. Don't forget that John Bolton was Trump's National Security Advisor for a time, which is a position of significant influence (but, critically, not determinative).

Trump isn't an isolationist, nor is he a neocon. He's more than willing to have hardliners on the staff, but he will ignore them as much as he ignores that anti-hardliners, which is to say he'll pick whoever's proposal he likes most in the context. Trump isn't ideological enough to be consistent, and while he's willing to go with things that are thought of as 'hardline' (such as the Soleimani killing), he's also been willing to go along with things considered 'weak' (such as the meeting with North Korea's Kim).

Part of Trump's style / implicit offer to his cabinet and significant appointments last time is that he's willing to appoint people whose ambitions / desires are outside the Overton window of the department they oversee, as long as they stand by him / don't start to try and spat with him / his priorities. Trump's appointments, however, are not themselves an endorsement / indication of top-level support for their preferences (i.e. Trump isn't going to fight their bureaucratic battles for them).

What that means is that Rubio and Trump probably have some identified overlapping interests that Rubio wants to do but the current state department momentum isn't. Rubio being a hawk doesn't disqualify him to Trump, because Trump isn't going to defer to Rubio as much as let Rubio do his own thing until Rubio gets involved in a fight with Trump.

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