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PaperclipPerfector  14d ago (text post)   1281 thread views

Transnational Thursday for November 7, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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In other international news that totally-isn't-a-consequence of the US election shaping state decisions, Qatar has agreed to remove Hamas from its territory after Hamas refused to conduct genuine hostage, ceasefire negotiations (as characterized by an anonymous US official).

This is a significant development if true, as it represents a significant drop in Arab political support for Hamas inclusion into a post-Gaza-War unified Palestine government, a point of post-war tension with Israel, and likely signals the further political decline of the Palestinians as a key factor in Arab politics as the loss of one of their key sponsors / sympathizers will likely see Hamas turn more towards Iran, and thus burn further bridges with the Arab states concerned about Iran and its axis of resistance.

For those unaware, Qatar has been the host to the political wing of Hamas for some times. Qatar-Hamas relations more or less started in earnest after Hamas's take over of Gaza in the mid-2000s, and in 2012 Hamas set up a political office in Qatar. Due to Qatar's role as a 'negotiates with everyone' regional diplomatic power, Qatar is a country the Israelis do not generally conduct assassinations / targetted killings, and so Hamas was able to operate with... not impunity, but relative safety and patronage. While this was supported by the Obama-era US and Israel to facilitate negotiations between Israel and Hamas, Qatar has provided its own support, including lots of money (well over $1 billion USD over the years, 'for the Palestinians' but via Hamas), safe shop, but also a very supportive media relationship with Qatari-owned Al Jazeera news. Setting aside cases of Jazeera journalists outright supporting Hamas, the Qatari line via Al Jazeera is one of the most public and influential Arab media / information influence shapers for the pro-Hamas / anti-Israeli side of the current conflict.

While the Hamas military and political wings are not synonymous, and the political wing in Qatar likely were not directly aware of Oct 7 (because why wouldn't they be spied on intently), the Hamas political wing being stationed in Qatar represents something of a last-stand of Palestinian resistance politics in the Arab world. The various Palestinian violent resistance movements across history have progressively gotten less support / more opposition from regional Arab states after various misteps, including Black September, support for Saddam during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and others. The Qataris were, to a real degree, the last major Gulf Arab state both willing to host Hamas and able to sponsor them... and whose hosting provided protection from Israeli retaliation.

With Qatar ejecting the Hamas political leadership during the Oct 7 war, that protection is ending. Hamas leaders will almost certainly seek alternative patronage support in other countries... but the list of those (a) willing to host, (b) who Israel isn't willing to attack into anyway, and (c) willing to protect Hamas if Israel tries is very small, and mostly non-Arab.

Especially since there is a not-very-subtle US pressure in play.

"After rejecting repeated proposals to release hostages, its leaders should no longer be welcome in the capitals of any American partner. We made that clear to Qatar following Hamas's rejection weeks ago of another hostage release proposal," the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

This doesn't mean a country like, say, Turkey couldn't do so anyway, but in all likelihood the confluence of 'willing to sponsor Hamas in the Oct 7 war' and 'doesn't care about US pressure' is probably Iran... and honestly, either Iran or Turkey (though less Turkey) demonstrate the same point: the Palestinian resistance issue is transitioning from an Arab-led issue, to an issue led by Arab-rivals.

This doesn't mean a sharp or sudden change in political cultures or such is imminent- al Jazeera will still be running pro-Palestinian / anti-Israeli issues for years to come- but as states change their priorities, and their patronage networks, so do their information efforts and priorities. It's been said before the Palestinians never lose an opportunity to lose an opportunity, and in this case the opportunity lost was Qatari sponsorship.

As for why now? Well, as hinted above, probably US election political politics. The US message quoted above was 'weeks ago' for an issue apparent months ago, but the President coming in was only determined days ago. How Trump might have approached the issue likely had a non-trivial influence on the Qatari decision.

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