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naraburns  nihil supernum  16d ago (text post)   26862 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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Selzer is obviously ruined. Her whole thing is she predicts 1 state and she produced one of the worst polls of all time.

Silver is similarly ruined, however. His whole grift is predicting elections and he said “idk.” He will refuse to ever admit industry polling bias, so the best he can do is make his model say 50/50 unless it’s already obvious to everyone and their grandma who will win.

I'm more more forgiving of Silver than of Selzer. Sometimes the data just indicates that it's just too close and the correct thing to say is that you don't know. And in reality, I think everyone understands that you don't really know. Selzer being not only wrong, but nearly the opposite of correct when she's supposed to be the foremost expert is quite damning in my eyes.

There is always going to be some error with polls. Most pollsters fake their results near the end by averaging them with those of other pollswhich does work to make their polls more accurate, but at the cost of making the aggregate of the polls less accurate. Didn't Selzer just not do this? Why should she be ruined for that?

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