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naraburns  nihil supernum  17d ago (text post)   26895 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

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I don't think Biden will resign for something so symbolic. But he is old and senile, it's not impossible that she still gets a shot at wrecking Trump's "47" merchandise.

I was wrong, badly, and I'll spend the next week saying that repeatedly, I expect. I should know better than to underestimate Musk.

But that doesn't mean the Democrats have given up. The electoral vote probably won't be close enough to make faithless electors a worthwhile scheme, but it will at least be seriously discussed. I expect the weapon of choice here will be lawfare: Trump isn't president yet, so New York could still try to put him in jail, at least for a while.

I did say many times that I'm not a numbers person. But there's still surely a 5% or 10% chance that someone other than Trump gets sworn in next, I would think. My priors on such a thing are low (it would literally be unprecedented) but we live in interesting times.

If they win the house, they could try to say he is an insurrectionist. But…in that case that would require some swing district Dems overriding the will of the people.

Winning the popular vote provides enormous legitimacy. This won’t happen.

With respect to the lawfare, I'd point you to this article from two or three days ago: Dems say they will certify a Trump victory — even the ones who think the 14th Amendment disqualifies him. So I mark it down as unlikely. Seems to be little appetite for it even in private. If they follow through and don't contest, I think that's actually pretty decent evidence in favor of what I've been saying all along -- that regardless of some lefty rhetoric, they honestly do not intend to actually make a constitutional issue out of things like this.

I appreciate your humility and your honesty, and I think that number's reasonable (with the House being projected to go Republican, even offing both Trump and Vance likely wouldn't accomplish a flip, and Vance-covered-in-Trump's-blood would be far worse for the Democrats than Trump himself, but loonies aren't exactly famed for their rationality). Just wanted to check in on your predictions.

If Trump is assassinated, it will be by a loony, not a Democrat. Given the previous assassination attempts, not necessarily a left-coded loony. The charisma about Trump that makes him an effective politician also makes him a better target for Herostratus-style loony assassins. (See also Reagan, JFK).

But there's still surely a 5% or 10% chance that someone other than Trump gets sworn in next, I would think.

seems huge overestimate and I would bet money against it (up to 1:100 odds, counting transaction costs and risks)

Trump's had two solid assassination attempts, and the Secret Service pretty clearly ain't what they used to be. Blues are all-in that this is a fascist takeover. In 175 million Americans, it would be pretty amazing if there weren't a few more willing to have a go to save the nation, capable of planning better, and coherent enough to make a go of it.

No, they aren’t.

Most outlets are only calling him fascist in conjunction with last week’s news. Going forward, they prefer “dangerous,” “unpredictable,” or “authoritarian.”

More importantly, they aren’t insinuating a takeover. He appears to have won fair and square.

I think both are moot points. The mind which decides to strike a blow against fascism is just as detached from reality as the one that thinks he’ll impress Jodie Foster. Stochastic terrorism is overrated.

That is why I give odds at 1:100, not 1:1000 (note: these are real odds, betting involves extra risks and on bet itself here margin is thin enough to make betting useless for profiting on it)

He also doesn't need to make any more appearances in front of large crowds until the inauguration, which will presumably be covered really well because it involves lots of important people besides Trump. I'm fairly certain he'll survive until January.

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