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naraburns  nihil supernum  1d ago (text post)   14391 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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Well, I was pushing it as an important data point, with my motivation being that she has done well in the past, including publishing pro-Trump results against public sentiment. What did I get wrong? I'm not sure. My most generous interpretation is that her methodology has essentially been a RNG that got a pretty lucky streak.

Or could it have just gotten an unlucky miss with that poll? I don’t understand why people took a single data point like that so seriously

It's a bit more than an unlucky miss, though: she's going to be off by double digits, far outside the statistical MoE.

At the least, I should have taken the "throw it into the pile" approach, instead of privileging it as a gold standard poll.

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