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naraburns  nihil supernum  1d ago (text post)   14435 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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I want to see more of PA/WI/MI, but at the least it seems the Selzer poll was... wrong.

I suspect that not just the Selzer poll was trying to lead opinion rather than reflect it.

She pulled this same stunt in 2020 for the Senate race; which, to be fair, did manage to get the RNC to panic and blow money there until she put out a "new" poll showing them up by 10.

She's a hack; even if she weren't, her methodology is to triple-down on landline phone polling, but only counting guaranteed voters. How anyone expected this to be legit is beyond me.

Oh, certainly. Her poll was obviously motivated. If the Democratic party's army of pollsters looking for good news weren't able to see such trends, it wasn't for a lack of looking.

I'm thinking more of the other herding polls. I suspect some of them may have been pushed slightly higher not just on grounds of uncertainty, but to avoid a self-fulfilling doom spiral from dispiriting the Democrats in the final phase. That level of uniformity between polls is extremely unlikely, particularly when there are plenty of incentives to lean out.

Herding is a defense if you believe organizational embarrassment is a priority, but I don't think that applies to many of the organizations that were herding.

Oh, certainly. Her poll was obviously motivated.

The obviousness escaped several posters here.

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