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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024

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The war will end as a huge embarrassment for the West with permanent degradation in the perception of the West's financial and military strength. It'll be yet another feather in the cap of failure by the US state department over the last 25 years.

It isn't a victory, but isn't the fact that Ukraine is still fighting this far still an impressive feat?

At some point, you can't expect the West to be able to defeat Russia in every proxy war context.

you can't expect the West to be able to defeat Russia in every proxy war context.

This isn't even a symmetrical proxy war. The West is fighting only as a proxy against full Russian involvement. Feels a lot like Russia's Vietnam, even if in the long run Russia might eke out a points victory - a major power thwarted by a minor nation backed by opposing major powers, except even less flattering for Russia because at least Vietnam was half a world away and not bordering America.

Ukraine losing half their population and their most valuable oblasts as well as 600,000+ dead (I haven't seriously looked into casualties for the last 6 mo or so) in order to successfully stall a much larger and more powerful country is impressive. The coordinated western and Ukrainian propaganda blitz and ability to control how the war is perceived in the West is very impressive. Unfortunately, manipulating perceptions eventually has to sync with reality. The West manipulating or buying of Ukrainian elites to feed their people and nation into the shredder is impressive.

However, it's going to result in a catastrophic loss and at enormous cost, too. Western weapons have been exposed, and even if we're being overly kind, western industry and capability to make these weapons in sufficient numbers to affect the battlefield has been exposed, and Russia (and their allies) now have countermeasures to all of them and they're quite effective, the multipolar alliance strengthens, Russia's willingness to supply weapons and tech to American enemies is in overdrive, the deindustrialization of Europe, amongst others.

At some point, you can't expect the West to be able to defeat Russia in every proxy war context

The West has engaged in dozens of actions which could legitimately be characterized as acts of war and the only reason it's not is because of escalatory danger. There's a difference between supplying some 3rd world guerilla group to combat an enemy and focusing nearly your entirely military output to support a country up to and including on-the-ground military personnel who interface intelligence with that military and even even weapons.

I do think it's reasonable to expect a competent West to pick these sorts of wars only when they can win them and the cost is worth it. I don't consider the Western foreign policy establishment to be competent or reasonable because they have a now 40+ year history of incompetent idiocy which has burned the benefits of winning the cold war.