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PaperclipPerfector  18d ago (text post)   32918 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024

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One of the biggest outcomes of this has to be that the Supreme Court will now become even more conservative than before, and for longer. We are looking at 10-20 years of conservative domination at least, and probably longer. Since, contra many thinkers, wokeness has definitely NOT peaked, and we are seeing further entrenchment of far left zoomers in institutions of power like law schools, medical schools, and the civil service, this will serve as a big stop-gap protecting liberalism and the constitution in America.

On the other hand, what will the ramifications be of the public increasingly seeing the Supreme Court as being so one-sided? Will it result in demoralization of the left, or further radicalization?

What do we think the odds are that a) Trump will try to nominate his horse for SCOTUS (not literally, but nominating a poorly qualified candidate who is personally tied to him the way Bush did with Harriet Miers)? b) The GOP senate majority will confirm her if he does?

First term Trump promised to nominate Fedsoc-aproved justices, and did. Second term Trump never needed to make that promise. My ill-informed guess is (a) 20% and (b) 60% but these are very much out-of-posterior probabilities. For purposes of settlement I would consider Aileen Cannon to be a horse, but not any other sitting federal judge. If Trump nominates Kacsmaryk, Pittman or O'Connor from the Northern District of Texas, he will be accused of nominating his horse, but these judges are right-wing judicial activists who are more loyal to the conservative movement than Trump personally.

a) Trump will try to nominate his horse for SCOTUS (not literally, but nominating a poorly qualified candidate who is personally tied to him the way Bush did with Harriet Miers)?

How about Court Chancellor instead?

We can fabricate a claim on Canada.

Isn't this more of a Stellaris-playing administration, what with Musk and all?

In any case, I do not see Alina Habba as a future Pope.

It is worth pointing out that the Kingdom of Canada is still technically a vassal of the British Empire, so pressing the claim would mean with war with the top liege and all his vassals, which probably include nuclear Gandhi.

Curse the job and family that stop me playing Paradox games properly.

You're not alone. :(

Trump is likely to replace the two most conservative justices with ACB types.

Don’t get be wrong, ACB is legions better than a democrat pick. But moving the court to the right is a funny way to describe it.

Is she, though?

Her concurrence on Trump v. Anderson was kind of unhinged. Other than that, I guess she’s done alright.

I guess they all throw something weird out there every once in a while.

Who does "she" refer to?

Amy Coney Barrett, who authored the linked concurrence.

ACB

What's ACB?

All Cops are Bastards.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett

Trump is likely to replace the two most conservative justices with ACB types.

I hope for more Gorsuches.

Yeah, as a libertarian I'm obviously super biased, but Gorsuch seems like he's way better than all the other justices.

He's not perfect - his reading of statute in Bostock is strained and sophistic at best. But I'll trade that for getting the Nondelegation Doctrine and the other big constitutional questions right.

Indeed. I couldn't really vote for Trump in this election because of his tariffs and the general policy uncertainty, but if he could somehow guarantee he would nominate a Gorsuch clone in his second term that would probably have been enough for me.

One of the biggest outcomes of this has to be that the Supreme Court will now become even more conservative than before, and for longer.

Probably not. Next retirement will be Thomas, replaced by a less conservative Trump pick.

I thought Sotomayor was also going to retire or possibly die?

I don't imagine she'll retire under Trump. "Die" is always a possibility but I don't imagine she's sickly or she would have retired under Biden.

Nate silver brought up she should retire already

https://www.natesilver.net/p/sonia-sotomayors-retirement-is-a

Apparently she is diabetic and had a parent who died young

Josh Barro has been on that beat for a long time. It seems unlikely she dies in the next 4 years (if it's 8, then maybe), but the RBG thing was so embarrassing that I get why they'd want to be absolutely sure.

It also might help that, even among left-leaning people, Sotomayor is not the best regarded Justice.

The issue isn't just that she has to survive Trump - the issue is that the next Democratic president will probably face a Republican senate who may either be able to insist on a moderate pick, or simply hold the seat open for the next Republican president.

Given the overrepresentation of low-population red states, a Democratic Senate majority is an extremely unlikely outcome, and the one the Democrats just lost depended on Democrats who won in red states in the 2006 midterm landslide clinging on through a combination of incumbency advantage and strategic moderation. This makes the current situation a once-per-generation opportunity for Democrats to confirm judges.

One saving grace of the supreme court is the amazing advancements in life extension. By 2030 the Fede Gesserit Society will be analyzing the EBV longevity SNPs of high profile lawyers for the immortal scotus justice breeding program.

Unless Thomas has a hand-picked successor lined up.

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