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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   11723 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024

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POTUS is not the only thing that Americans voted for today.

Ballot questions that would protect abortion rights are projected to pass in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, New York and Nevada.

Fifty-seven percent of voters approved the ballot initiative in Florida, three percentage points short of passing. Florida voted down the initiative even as voters there favor legal abortion by 65%. Among supporters of legal abortion, 14% voted against the amendment, according to preliminary exit poll results.

What was uniquely bad about the initiative in Florida that it caused some supporters of legal abortion to vote against it? Was it the "or when necessary to protect the patient's health, as determined by the patient's healthcare provider" clause? Or something else?

It was a little too expansive — health, without specificity or degree, has largely been read to allow nearly every sort of elective abortion, and that’s how Trump backpedaled after initial support — but it’s interesting it did as well as it did. Florida’s constitutional amendment process is steep, and getting 57% means a lot of people voted for both Trump and this most expansive case.

Part pf why I think a mild realignment on the matter is possible, if not likely.

It's what your quoted text observed, 57%, while Florida requires 60% for changes to their constitution. Far more conservative Missouri passed it with 51.9% Yes vs. 48.1% No, as amending the Missouri constitution requires only a simple majority.

Florida Amendment 4, and the following appears to be the full text:

Limiting government interference with abortion.— Except as provided in Article X, Section 22, no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.

Missouri Amendment 3, full text, and summary:

A “yes” vote establishes a constitutional right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives, with any governmental interference of that right presumed invalid; removes Missouri's ban on abortion; allows regulation of reproductive health care to improve or maintain the health of the patient; requires the government not to discriminate, in government programs, funding, and other activities, against persons providing or obtaining reproductive health care; and allows abortion to be restricted or banned after Fetal Viability except to protect the life or health of the woman.

A “no” vote will continue the statutory prohibition of abortion in Missouri.

What was uniquely bad about the initiative in Florida that it caused some supporters of legal abortion to vote against it?

I don’t think we can speculate too much without seeing the survey question. 14% is a pretty small number of abortion supporters, so maybe it’s the percentage comfortable with heavy restrictions plus or minus the lizardman’s constant.

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