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Notes -
Probability and stats have always been my favourite parts of mathematics and I have zero interest in gambling (I went to Vegas once, lost $50, won $30, and felt vaguely annoyed and bored and went to drink cocktails in the hotel pool and haven’t gambled since).
The reason is simply that I think intelligence basically just is predictive ability. This operates at different levels, of course. A smart goalkeeper will be able to guess which way a penalty-taker will shoot, and a smart driver will predict that the car ahead will change lanes suddenly. By contrast, a smart lawyer might give you advice on how to avoid getting sued and a smart accountant on how to avoid paying as much tax. A smart scientist may identify a novel experimental technique for testing a theorem. A smart philosopher might give advice which if followed will reliably allow you to live a more virtuous or contented life. In all these cases, we’re identifying the threads of cause and effect and making claims about how one informs the other.
This is why when I hear people say LLMs are “just next token predictors” it doesn’t tell us much about their psychological capacities, because we’re next token predictors too (or more exactly: prediction error minimisers). That’s not an uncontroversial claim, of course, but it’s also not an outrageous one in the context of contemporary cognitive science; the predictive coding/free energy frameworks of people like Andy Clark and Karl Friston are rapidly becoming the consensus or at least plurality view on questions of ur-principles of cognition.
But why should we care about predicting the US election specifically? I think because it’s a big meaty complex problem that is amenable to insights from a variety of different methods and life experiences. Sure we can take the Nate Silver approach and read daily polls and build models, but you can also glean insights from just talking to people at the bar or from sampling the vibe in your niche industry or from developing your world-historical theories or a million other methods. Nate Silver will probably beat you on average, but it’s not crazy to think that for a general election these kinds of interactions and experiences might give you a useful insight. That makes election punditry an unusually inclusive form of prognostication — you can debate it with your mom or your Uber driver or your babysitter. In that sense, it’s a very American sideshow to the very American event.
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