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Notes -
I do not know.
If Trump wins, I place an 75% probability that Rep. Jamie Raskin carries through on his implied threat to not certify the election results, as he tried to do in 2016. I doubt that he can get a critical mass of democrats to join up with the effort, however.
I would not be surprised if there were extensive protests which degenerated into limited looting sprees in major cities in the event of a Trump victory. I would be surprised if more than 5 people nationwide were killed.
The media bias was cranked up to 11, and the candidate quality (with the pleasing exception of JD Vance) was through the floor.
Yeah, the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act's standards are high: 20 Senators and 87 Representatives is not pocket change. I'd expect some sort of symbolic act anyway, but I'd be unpleasantly surprised if they were able to pick up even half that.
((Of course, in 2020 I thought Red Tribes never rioted; there's a lot of space for unpleasant surprise.))
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