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This poll is a complete outlier in the wrong direction. It's not just that it's different from all other polls (which are probably herded to a close split 50-50 so nobody has egg). It's that it's totally divorced from every other fundamental. Republican early turnout is up, voter registration is up, enthusiasm and endorsements are up. Trump is the most popular he's ever been, he's bringing Democrats like Gabbard and RFK onto MAGA, he's got billionaire and tech endorsements, Muslims in Dearborn and Minneapolis are endorsing him, he's filling out rallies in New Mexico and New York. Trump got 40M views on Joe Rogan, Kamala wouldn't even go. If Kamala was winning in Iowa, why isn't she campaigning there? Tim Walz is in the state next door, it would be trivial for him to go. They're campaigning in Pennsylvania. And wouldn't Kamala be more popular? Major newspapers are withholding endorsements, her rallies are tepid at best, shouting broke out at one because attendees didn't get their promised Beyonce concert. It's possible this poll is right and every other indication is wrong -- but then, aren't the crosstabs of this poll awfully convenient? Republicans are apparently shifting further left than Independents, and after 4 years of Biden-Harris, inflation, immigration, and Ukraine, voter's biggest concern is... Abortion? In Iowa?
This is too much, it's not worth taking seriously. Maybe, really really, everything else is wrong and this one poll is right, but it's not very likely. I don't know why this poll gets so much credulity here. It's like listening to a LLM, which has no experience of the world, and has no reference or context. It's possible this one outlier poll is right. But it's exceptionally unlikely. And in the world of crazy outlier predictions, there are lots of other outliers that are just as credible.
Well, why not? I've seen a number of people refer to Iowa having a six-week abortion ban just enter into force in July, and it's one of the few states with a six-weeks-or-less that's not deep red (in the sense it voted for the Dem candidate as recently as 2012). If there's an actual swing, it could very well be an effect very specific of Iowa (and with limited predictive value elsewhere).
I'm not sure why Ukraine was included here, most polls I've seen (like this one) have shown supporting Ukraine continue to be relatively popular. Of course the recent events (rapid Russian advance in Donbass) might make a difference, but I haven't also seen the Trump campaign refer to Ukraine too much, compared to issues like inflation and immigration.
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Yarvin's theory is pollsters have to adjust for the better Democrat election tech or else they will get egg on their face when they underestimate the Democratic vote.
Where did he write on this?
It was on a podcast: https://youtube.com/watch?v=3kBW-6TebUg
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