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PaperclipPerfector  24d ago (text post)   34276 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024

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I have a very good record of betting on prediciton markets and crypto. Turned an ~70K bankroll into a few million. That is not some Lebron level performance but its very good in my opinion. The motte isn't going to want to hear this but...

'Things the right wants to be true' are systematically overpriced. This has been true for years and it is probably still true this cycle. That doesn't mean Trump wont win or wont win in a landslide. But systematically the 'pro-rightwing' outcomes tend to be overpriced. I would not place a bet on any outcome where Trump wins unless you have a very good reason. I think trump is favored but the bets tend to be overpriced.

I will say there is one piece of counterevidence recently that seems important to my personal estimation. Prediction markets were way ahead of other sources in predicting that Joe Biden would step down. Places like Metaculus which are usually reasonably trustworthy (despite minimal monetary incentives) were hilariously overconfident. But I am skeptical of most 'trump wins X' bets from a financial point of view.

Yeah this is a fairly accurate take, although I also made a good amount of money (nowhere near your bankroll, natch) betting on Trump in '16 when his odds were extremely undervalued, both in the primary and the general, up until the last couple months

May I ask what gives you confidence on where crypto is headed? What sort of bets did you make?

Mostly technical details. Things like firedancer, the new solana validator client.

Hm. I wish you'd elaborate more.

that's impressive. are you actively trading crypto, or just HODLing it? It seems hard to make large amounts on prediction markets, no matter how good you are, because they're just too thinly traded and have too much of a spread/withdrawal fees.

The crypto election markets (ie polymarket) dont have those problems. You can bet millions without changing the odds too much (assuming you spread your bets out a little). Spread and withdrawal fees are very small. You are probably thinking of the situation with predictit which did have all those issues.

Note: I specifically do mean election markets. Elections, especially presidential elections, have by far the most liquidity. But you can bet tens or low hundreds of thousands of dollars on all sorts of markets. Liquidity varies but many markets have decent liquidity.

But doesnt that require you to have some special insight about elections? I agree with nate silver, this election is too close to call and i have no idea what will happen. I certainly wouldn't want to wager millions of dollars on it. If you have some special insight, you could probably becone a celebrity forecaster like nate silver and make more that way.

You need correct insight not special insight. Many rationalists made a lot more money than I did with the simple insight of 'AI progress will be rapid, buy nvidia'. I made a little off that insight but got into the game too late and was too diversified into shitty AI companies.

What is your general strategy for making money on prediction markets and crypto?

Don't use leverage. Don't make a trade unless you think you have a huge edge.

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